In brief
- Bitcoin surged nearly 25% in August, marking its most successful August since 2017, and closed the month above its 50-month moving average for the first time since the onset of last year's crypto downturn.
- Traders on Myriad Markets are estimating a 77% likelihood that Bitcoin will reach $84,000 before potentially dropping to $55,000.
- Historically, September is Bitcoin's weakest month, and current price action indicates it is struggling beneath a resistance level that has been in place since late August.
As September begins, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $77,500, experiencing a slight decline of about 1.3% following a robust month.
The rapid rise in the crypto market that shifted sentiment from "fear" to "extreme greed" seems to have slowed down—leaving many to wonder about the future trajectory of Bitcoin's price.
This recent upswing can be traced back to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announcement on August 19 to double the size of long-end bond buybacks, a liquidity measure that drove Treasury yields down and led to a short squeeze in the crypto sector. Concurrently, the Securities and Exchange Commission introduced a framework for crypto investment contracts, providing additional regulatory support for the rally.
However, the momentum faded after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, in his inaugural address at Jackson Hole, expressed concerns that inflation data is "more concerning" than the labor market, reigniting discussions about a possible rate hike at the Fed's upcoming meeting on September 15-16. Bitcoin had briefly exceeded $81,000 following the buyback news but subsequently fell below $78,000, finishing August with a significant gain of around 25%, recovering from a 21-month low near $59,300 recorded in June.
Myriad: Where does Bitcoin price go next? Click to make your prediction.On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt, traders are showing strong confidence that the rally still has potential.
Currently, the market indicates a 77% probability that Bitcoin will hit $84,000 before retreating to $55,000, a sentiment that reflects the momentum of August rather than current chart indicators.
Bitcoin price: Analyzing the charts
Bitcoin commenced September right where August concluded, at $78,571, before dipping to a low of $77,440. This slight pullback occurs just under a resistance zone that has proven to be a barrier near the $82,500 mark.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which gauges whether an asset is overbought or oversold on a scale of 0 to 100, currently registers at 66.1 on the daily chart. While this is indicative of bullish conditions, it is approaching the 70 level, where traders often anticipate profit-taking.
Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX), which assesses the strength of a trend regardless of its direction, stands at 43.7, significantly above the 25 threshold that confirms a genuine trend is in play. This reading suggests a stronger market than the erratic movements indicated by a low ADX.
However, there is a notable concern: the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages are still in a bearish crossover, with the 50-day below the 200-day. This is typically interpreted as a longer-term warning signal, indicating that the overarching trend has not fully shifted to bullish despite the current rally. Nevertheless, the gap between these averages is narrowing, which may signal a potential bullish crossover ahead.
Looking at the monthly chart reveals a more compelling narrative.
Throughout the second half of 2025 and until July 2026, Bitcoin's price consistently declined, trading below its 50-month moving average, a trend that has only been observed a few times in its history: during the bear market that followed the 2017 peak and again in the aftermath of the Terra/LUNA and FTX collapses in 2022. Both instances marked significant downturns in the crypto market.
August's monthly candle, the largest green bar on the chart, pushed Bitcoin back above that average, signaling its best monthly performance since November 2024.
This represents a significant technical shift. However, the monthly RSI is at a neutral 50.6, and the monthly ADX is at 23.7, just below the 25 level that would confirm a real trend rather than a mere bounce. Thus, while breaking above the average has ended the bearish signal, it has not yet validated a new bullish trend.
The macroeconomic environment that fueled August's rally remains intact. The Treasury's buyback initiative is set to continue through the November 4 refunding quarter, Bitcoin ETFs are still attracting net inflows, and the SEC's regulatory process for cryptocurrencies is progressing rather than stagnating.
A regained 50-month average, along with a daily ADX that confirms a genuine trend, provides bulls with a solid structural argument: the winter signal that persisted for nearly 10 months has been broken, and trend-following investors typically flock to such shifts once they are confirmed on a longer timeframe.
Nonetheless, September poses challenges for bullish investors before any new catalysts emerge. Historically, September has been Bitcoin's weakest month since 2013, and this year, the seasonal downturn is exacerbated by Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole and the approaching Fed meeting on September 15-16, which has seen increased odds of a rate hike.
Key levels to keep an eye on
- Resistance: $81,455 to $82,538 (immediate confluence zone), $92,003 to $100,091 (monthly golden zone)
- Support: $73,670 to $75,157 (daily golden zone), $68,858 (August swing low)
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as financial, investment, or any other form of advice.