Bitcoin saw a 25% surge in August, but faces resistance and historical downturns as September begins.
Summary
- Bitcoin experienced a remarkable 25% increase in August, marking its best performance for that month since 2017, and closed above its 50-month moving average.
- Traders on Myriad Markets see a 77% chance that Bitcoin will reach $84,000 before a possible drop to $55,000.
- September historically presents challenges for Bitcoin, as it is typically the weakest month for the cryptocurrency, and current trading indicates resistance near recent highs.
As September kicks off, Bitcoin is trading around $77,500, reflecting a slight decline of about 1.3% after a strong month. The surge in the cryptocurrency market, which shifted sentiment from fear to extreme greed, appears to have lost momentum, raising questions about Bitcoin's future price movement.
The uptick in Bitcoin's price can be attributed to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announcement on August 19 regarding an increase in long-end bond buybacks, which drove Treasury yields lower and triggered a short squeeze in the crypto market. Additionally, the Securities and Exchange Commission's new framework for crypto investment contracts provided a supportive regulatory backdrop for the rally.
However, momentum waned following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at Jackson Hole, where he expressed concerns about inflation, reigniting speculation about a potential interest rate hike at the Fed's upcoming meeting on September 15-16. Bitcoin briefly surpassed $81,000 after the buyback news but subsequently fell back below $78,000, ending August with a notable gain of around 25% after recovering from a low of approximately $59,300 in June.
On the prediction market Myriad, traders are optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects, showing a strong belief that the rally may continue. Currently, there is a 77% probability that Bitcoin will reach $84,000 before potentially retreating to $55,000, reflecting the momentum from August despite current price resistance.
Price Analysis
Bitcoin started September at $78,571 but fell to a low of $77,440, struggling beneath a resistance zone near $82,500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 66.1, indicating bullish conditions but nearing the profit-taking threshold of 70. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 43.7, suggesting a strong trend is in place despite recent fluctuations.
Yet, a bearish crossover remains evident with the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, signaling that the long-term trend has not fully shifted to bullish despite recent gains. The narrowing gap between these averages, however, may suggest a potential bullish crossover may be on the horizon.
Looking further back, Bitcoin's price had been consistently declining since mid-2025 until July 2026, trading below its 50-month moving average. August's performance, the largest monthly gain since November 2024, pushed Bitcoin back above this average, indicating a significant technical shift. Despite this, the monthly RSI is neutral at 50.6 and the monthly ADX is at 23.7, indicating that although the bearish signal has ended, a new bullish trend is not yet confirmed.
Factors supporting the August rally, such as ongoing Treasury buybacks and the positive trajectory of Bitcoin ETFs, remain intact. A regained 50-month average and a daily ADX confirming a genuine trend suggest that bullish investors may find encouragement in this shift, but challenges lie ahead in September, a historically weak month for Bitcoin, especially amid concerns about potential rate hikes.
Key Price Levels
- Resistance: $81,455 to $82,538 (immediate zone), $92,003 to $100,091 (monthly golden zone)
- Support: $73,670 to $75,157 (daily golden zone), $68,858 (August swing low)
