Bitcoin's Current Bear Market is Its Mildest Yet—Is the Bottom Here?

Summary

• Bitcoin has fallen 50% from its peak of $126,080, marking its mildest bear market to date.
• Experts caution that ongoing ETF outflows and a tightening macroeconomic climate suggest the bear market may not be over.
• Key price levels to watch include $60,000, with possible retests at $55,000 and $45,000 if declines continue.

Bitcoin is currently experiencing a notable downturn, having dropped 50% from its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October 2025, according to CoinGecko. This decline is the least severe in Bitcoin's history, contrasting sharply with the 90% drop seen in 2012.

While the current bear market is relatively mild, experts are divided on whether it has reached its bottom. Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, suggests that Bitcoin's maturation into a more institutional asset has resulted in less severe downturns. He stated, "The evolution of Bitcoin means I don’t foresee another 80% drop occurring in this cycle." Meanwhile, Martin Lee from DWF Labs noted that the current composition of Bitcoin holders, which includes many institutions, may lead to shallower drawdowns and less volatility than in previous cycles.

Despite this, both Ko and Alex Tsepaev, Chief Strategy Officer at B2PRIME Group, believe that the bear market is not yet finished. Tsepaev highlighted that since mid-May, ETF inflows have been minimal, indicating weak demand. He also pointed out that the current bearish sentiment is driven by macroeconomic pressures and ongoing outflows.

Price Levels to Monitor

Ko and Tsepaev emphasize the importance of the $60,000 mark as a psychological threshold. If Bitcoin continues to decline, they anticipate potential retests of the $55,000 and $45,000 levels. Market-making firm Wintermute has also noted that support at $62,000 has been compromised, which could lead to further price drops.

Recent sentiment shifts indicate a growing expectation of a decline to $55,000, with users on the prediction market Myriad assigning a 72% probability to this scenario, up from 39% earlier this month. Ko suggested that easing geopolitical tensions could help establish a bottom for Bitcoin, potentially leading to a more favorable monetary policy outlook from the Federal Reserve.

On the altcoin front, Lee remarked that individual assets are being valued based on their own merits rather than solely on Bitcoin's performance, indicating a divergence in market trends.