Summary
- Bitcoin's decline of 50% from its all-time high of $126,000 is the least severe bear market recorded, compared to the 90% drop in 2012.
- Experts cite ETF outflows and tightening macro conditions as indicators that the bear market may still be ongoing.
- Key price levels to monitor include $60,000, along with $55,000 and $45,000, should downward pressure persist, according to insights shared with Decrypt.
In June, Bitcoin has experienced a continuous decline, with its price falling significantly as capital continues to exit ETFs amid rising geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges.
Currently, Bitcoin's value is down 50% from its historic peak of $126,080 reached in October 2025, based on CoinGecko data, marking the shallowest bear market in Bitcoin's history.
Historically, the bear market of 2012 saw a decline exceeding 90%, according to CryptoQuant. This figure has decreased over subsequent cycles, dropping to 82% and 74%, respectively, in the following cycles, with the current cycle showing a milder 50% downturn, indicating a trend towards less severe drawdowns over time.
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, indicated to Decrypt, "Bitcoin has evolved into a more institutionalized macro asset, bolstered by ETFs, greater liquidity, and a more substantial base of long-term investors. This evolution is why drawdowns have become less severe across cycles, and I don’t foresee another 80% drop occurring in this cycle."
Martin Lee, who leads content and market insights at DWF Labs, remarked to Decrypt, "The composition of Bitcoin holders in this cycle is markedly different from previous ones. The involvement of institutions and corporations acquiring Bitcoin for their balance sheets suggests that we may see shallower drawdowns and less volatility, as observed over the past two years."
However, experts are skeptical about whether this signifies that the bottom of the bear market has been reached. They believe there may still be further declines ahead.
Reasons Bitcoin Hasn't Hit Bottom
Although a 50% decline is seen as a significant reset, Ko does not think the bear market has concluded.
He advised investors to monitor factors such as "ETF outflows, macro tightening, and liquidity shifts," which will help forecast the duration of the bear market, he said.
Alex Tsepaev, Chief Strategy Officer at B2PRIME Group, supports Ko's perspective, arguing that the bear market is far from finished. He described the current landscape as bearish due to a series of ETF outflows, macroeconomic pressures, and on-chain difficulties resulting from both factors.
Tsepaev pointed out, "Since May 18, there has been only one day of inflows, which occurred on June 4, indicating a significant weakening of passive demand."
Finding a Bitcoin Bottom
Both Ko and Tsepaev emphasized that $60,000 serves as the crucial psychological threshold, with a bearish scenario potentially involving retests of the $55,000 and $45,000 levels.
Wintermute shares a similar bearish outlook, noting that support at $62,000 has been compromised following Bitcoin's recent downturn, as mentioned in a Tuesday note. "Bitcoin did not spend significant time in the $50,000 to $59,000 range during its ascent in 2024, leaving no substantial technical support in that area. This makes market flow the primary driver of direction," the market-making firm stated.
In line with this, users on the prediction market Myriad, which is owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, have assigned a 72% likelihood that Bitcoin's next movement will take it down to $55,000. This figure has increased from 39% on June 1, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards bearish expectations.
Ko mentioned that a potential easing of geopolitical tensions could serve as a significant factor in establishing a bottom for Bitcoin. He suggested that such a de-escalation could alleviate the current energy and risk-off pressures, possibly leading to a more dovish stance from the Fed or at least signaling that further rate hikes are unlikely.
Increased demand for ETFs is another key factor noted by Ko.
On the altcoin front, the DWF analyst observed that Hyperliquid’s HYPE has shown divergence from the broader market trends. This could indicate that protocols are being valued on their individual merits rather than being solely influenced by Bitcoin's performance.
Lee stated, "Not every token will recover, and that’s simply the nature of the markets—assets are priced according to their individual merits over time, similar to what happens in equities."