Your day-ahead look for July 7, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 7, 2026, 11:26 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on U.S. bitcoin demand remains weak. (Asa E K/Unsplash)This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin BTC$63,412.32 experienced a decline after achieving a six-day rally, its longest stretch of gains since March. However, these gains appeared tenuous when assessed via various indicators.
The Coinbase Premium, a key metric that measures the price difference between Bitcoin on U.S.-based Coinbase (COIN) and Binance, has remained negative for fifty consecutive days, as reported by data provider Coinglass.
This situation indicates that for nearly two months, BTC has been trading at a lower price on Coinbase compared to Binance, which does not serve the U.S. market. This disparity highlights a lack of strong demand in the U.S., a trend corroborated by eight weeks of net outflows from U.S. spot exchange-traded funds, where historically, bullish trends have been associated with positive Coinbase Premiums.
In Japan, an upward trend in bond yields is also concerning, with the 10-year yield reaching a 30-year peak today, which could increase borrowing costs in the U.S., U.K., and Germany. A sustained rise, particularly in Treasury yields, may pose challenges for BTC's performance.
While seasonal trends support a potential recovery, analysts emphasize that ETF flows are crucial. "Until [BlackRock's ETF] IBIT itself experiences a turnaround to sustained inflows, the structural institutional demand remains uncertain," stated analysts from the crypto exchange Bitfinex in a report shared with CoinDesk.
QCP Capital, a crypto trading firm based in Singapore, noted that "the near-term outlook seems promising, especially if spot BTC ETFs continue to witness inflows following last Friday’s shift after a week of ongoing outflows."
They added that reclaiming the $64,000 price point this week could further enhance market sentiment and alleviate worries surrounding the publicly traded bitcoin-holder Strategy (MSTR). Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- BONK faces $20 million treasury drain after attacker spends $4 million to pass malicious proposal (CoinDesk): BONK DAO was drained of $20 million, the culmination of a week-long scheme in which an attacker spent about $4.4 million buying up the project's tokens to force through a vote.
- Oil prices rise after report of Iranian attack on commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz (CNBC): Oil prices increased by over 1% on Tuesday following reports of Iran launching missiles at two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Bitcoin's recent macro relief faces a challenge from Japanese interest rates (CoinDesk): The 10-year Japanese government bond yield surged to a 30-year high of 2.85%, challenging the 8% boost bitcoin received in fewer than seven days from shifting interest-rate expectations.
- Wall Street warms to SpaceX ahead of Nasdaq 100 index inclusion (Reuters): SpaceX's (SPCX) addition to the Nasdaq 100 is expected to unleash billions in passive buying, as brokerages kick off coverage with bullish views. The company's shares are down 1.2% in premarket trading.
Today’s signal
Combined market cap of USDT and USDC. (TradingView)The total market capitalization of the leading dollar-pegged stablecoins, USDT and USDC, has decreased from $268 billion to $257 billion over the last two months, despite their market share remaining relatively stable.
This trend indicates net capital withdrawals from the crypto market. Investors are converting crypto into stablecoins, and overall, these stablecoin holdings are being redeemed or moved out of the on-chain environment rather than being reinvested into riskier assets.
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