For the past five months, Bitcoin has been trading at a price lower than its production costs, putting pressure on miners and prompting some to liquidate their holdings, according to a report from JPMorgan. The bank estimates that the cost to mine a single bitcoin is approximately $78,000, significantly higher than its current value of about $62,500.
This financial strain is evident, with around 20% of miners reportedly operating at a loss, as noted by the bank referencing data from CoinShares. During the first quarter, publicly listed mining companies sold over 32,000 bitcoins to manage their expenses, surpassing their total sales for the entire year of 2025.
The network is adapting autonomously; when prices fall below mining costs, higher-cost miners shut down operations, resulting in a decrease in hashrate—the total computational power securing the network—and a corresponding reduction in mining difficulty, which adjusts automatically to reflect these changes.
This dynamic was observed in early June when mining difficulty decreased by 10%, marking the second such drop of this magnitude within the year.
Miners are also becoming increasingly responsive to price fluctuations. JPMorgan indicates that the sensitivity of mining difficulty to price changes has risen, with more operators now operating close to breakeven and adjusting their machines in response to price movements. The bank anticipates that adjustments will become larger and more frequent as long as Bitcoin's price remains below its production cost.
While the outlook remains cautious, JPMorgan highlights a potential positive aspect: the prevailing negative sentiment in the market might serve as a bullish contrarian indicator. This sentiment aligns with various accumulation signals, from whale purchases to diminishing exchange reserves, observed throughout this month.