On March 4, the price of Bitcoin briefly surpassed $74,000, marking its first time at this level in a month.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading near $72,090, having gained 6% over the past 24 hours.

Ethereum rose by 7.5% to $2,113. The coin tested a local high above $2,200 before pulling back slightly.

Among the top 50 assets, Dogecoin and Zcash led the gains. DOGE increased by over 8%, settling above $0.09, while ZEC rose by 9% to $235, recovering from February's lows.

K33 Research analysts noted the recent record oversold conditions of digital gold, following six weeks and five months of consecutive market declines.

According to Coin Bureau co-founder Nick Pakrin, the recovery is supported by institutional demand:

“During the recent crisis, Bitcoin outperformed the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and gold. This divergence is a positive signal.”

Pakrin highlighted that since March 2, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $680 million. Large investors are using cryptocurrency to protect their capital amid geopolitical instability.

Following the rise in cryptocurrencies, stocks of related companies also surged:

  • Coinbase shares jumped 15% to $210;
  • Gemini's stock rebounded from lows below $6, soaring 34% to $8.70;
  • Galaxy Digital's shares rose nearly 18% to $24.40;
  • Mining companies Bitfarms, IREN, American Bitcoin, and Hut 8 each gained about 13% in a day.

Expert Opinion

Sean Yang, chief analyst at MEXC Research, commented to ForkLog that the recent retest of the $73,000 level suggests a potential price bottom.

“The fear and greed index has risen from 8 to 29 points, and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have remained high for three consecutive days. This hints at a trend reversal. However, local pullbacks are possible as some traders will take profits,” he noted.

The shift of miners to the more profitable artificial intelligence sector has a dual impact on the market. According to Yang, reduced mining creates a coin shortage, which, with stable demand, drives prices up.

On the flip side, a decline in hashrate poses risks to the stability of the blockchain itself.

“If transactions are processed by only a few pools, it will harm Bitcoin's status as a payment instrument,” he warned.

Regarding liquidity, the MEXC representative reminded that in recent months, corporate investors have been withdrawing funds from ETFs. During this period, the price of the leading cryptocurrency has been primarily supported by retail players.

“A sustainable return of institutional investors will restore liquidity to the market. If inflows from ETF buyers and companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets continue to grow, the price will not only stabilize above $60,000 but could also reach $100,000 by the end of the second quarter,” Yang concluded.

Bears Maintain Control

Despite cautious optimism, traders continue to hedge against potential downturns. The premium on put options has exceeded that of call contracts by 10%, whereas in neutral market conditions, this difference typically does not exceed 6%. At the same time, demand for bullish Bitcoin futures is stagnating, with their annual premium dropping below the baseline of 5%.

This dynamic reflects investor caution following the market crash in early February.

According to Glassnode, 43% of Bitcoin's market supply is currently at a loss, up from 30% at the end of January. Traders fear that as the price recovers, investors will gradually offload their coins, creating additional resistance and limiting further growth.

Additional pressure comes from miners. The hash price index has fallen to $30 per 1 TH/s per day, down from $39 three months ago.

Mining profitability has dropped to historical lows amid high electricity costs. Public companies are liquidating their Bitcoin reserves and retooling their operations for artificial intelligence computations.

A crucial resistance level for the asset is the $76,000 zone, which is the average purchase price of Bitcoin by Strategy, a company that holds 720,737 BTC.

Some market participants benefit from keeping prices below this threshold. An increase in price would allow Strategy to issue new shares to purchase cryptocurrency without harming the capital of current investors.

The recovery of Bitcoin to the January high of $78,700 may take longer than the market expects. A breakthrough of this level would return initiative to buyers.

The cryptocurrency sentiment index has risen from 10 to 22 points, but still indicates extreme fear.

As a reminder, at the beginning of March, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck stated that the price of digital gold has approached a local bottom.