On April 6, the price of Bitcoin surged by 4%, testing the $70,000 mark. This positive market movement is attributed to signs of a potential de-escalation of the conflict in Iran.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $69,700.
Ethereum's price also rose by 5.5%, reaching $2,150.
According to Axios, the U.S., Israel, and Iran are discussing a 25-day ceasefire. This news has sparked hopes for reduced tensions in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
As a result, demand for riskier assets has increased, while the dollar index has fallen. The weakening of the U.S. dollar has accelerated amid reports of Pakistan mediating in the so-called Islamabad Agreement.
Under the agreement, the ceasefire and reopening of the strait are set to take effect immediately. The likelihood of a ceasefire on Polymarket jumped from 18% to 28%.
Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, believes that the outcome of these negotiations will influence Bitcoin's future trajectory. If the cryptocurrency breaks through $71,000, there will be room for further upward movement towards $80,000.
Pretty strong momentum on the markets of #Bitcoin.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 6, 2026
Volatility picking up, and I think it's fireworks during this week as we might be getting to the end stage of the entire situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
If #Bitcoin breaks $71K, then markets are in for a test at $80K. pic.twitter.com/EUgUuFAGxk
Derivatives Market Skepticism
Amid rising prices, open interest in Bitcoin and leading altcoins increased by 5.5% and 11%, respectively, indicating an influx of fresh capital into the market.
On Deribit, the most popular options are a put on Bitcoin with a strike price of $60,000 and a call with an exercise price of $80,000. Open interest for each of these contracts exceeds $1.4 billion.
The Bitcoin Regime Score indicator has returned to positive territory for the first time in 14 days (+14.1), signaling a potential recovery, noted analyst Axel Adler Jr.
🔴 Bitcoin funding rate just dropped to -0.43% the most negative reading in two weeks.
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) April 6, 2026
At the same time, the Regime Score flipped positive: +14.1 after 13 straight bearish days.
Two signals. Opposite directions. One of them is wrong.
Morning Brief #141 — full breakdown at the… pic.twitter.com/gMn4yr81i3
However, the funding rate remains at its lowest level in the past two weeks (-0.43%). According to analysts, derivatives market participants are still skeptical about a solid price reversal for Bitcoin.
The negative funding rate combined with the positive Regime Score has created a divergence suggesting two possible scenarios:
- The broad market signal will prove correct. Under price pressure, short positions will begin to close, and funding rates will reverse in line with the Regime Score metric, triggering a classic short squeeze.
- The price will not hold, the components of the Regime Score will weaken, and the metric will return to negative territory. In this case, funding will act as a leading indicator.
“The key indicator: will funding rates start to rise as the price continues to increase? This will confirm that the reversal is real and not just a technical bounce,” summarized Adler Jr.
Positive On-Chain Signal
According to analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin supply among long-term holders (LTH) has increased again. The metric has returned to positive territory for the first time since November, with an average of 308,000 BTC moving into this category.
📈 Bitcoin LTH supply turns positive again
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) April 6, 2026
Between geopolitical tensions and their economic consequences, the current environment remains very challenging for markets, particularly for risk assets but some investors seem to be betting on the long term.
—> We can observe that… pic.twitter.com/KrHbNFRhgd
The expert described this development as "constructive and a favorable signal." He noted that historically, such behavioral shifts have preceded positive price movements for the leading cryptocurrency.
Since the metric is based on UTXO, it reflects not so much active accumulation by LTH but rather the aging of outputs formed six months ago. If assets have not been spent, they automatically transition from short-term to long-term holdings.
When overall investor behavior shifts towards holding rather than selling, there is a resumption of growth in LTH supply. During bearish phases, such shifts can occur even without reaching levels sufficient to signal a structural trend change.
Darkfost emphasized the importance of continuing to monitor the actions of long-term holders. If this trend persists, it will serve as a compelling signal for the market.
As a reminder, in April, Bloomberg Intelligence's senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone predicted a drop in Bitcoin to $10,000 if it loses the $75,000 level.