On March 30, the first cryptocurrency dropped to $65,112, marking its lowest point since late February. By the start of Asian trading, the asset's price recovered to $67,400.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.
Altcoins supported the local rebound: Ethereum rose to $2,042, Solana climbed to $83.4, and XRP reached $1.35. However, the overall picture remains bearish on the weekly chart, with Ethereum and TRX being exceptions, gaining 0.3% and 5% respectively.
Source: CoinGecko.
The cryptocurrency market is under pressure from a negative macroeconomic backdrop and rising commodity prices. Brent crude oil has increased to $115 per barrel, while prices for industrial metals are also climbing. Asian stock indices have fallen by more than 3%. The rising cost of commodities heightens inflation risks, leading investors to doubt a near-term reduction in the Federal Reserve's key interest rate.
Meanwhile, the number of long positions in the BTC/USD pair on Bitfinex has reached 79,343, the highest since November 2023.
Source: CoinDesk, TradingView.
Historically, this metric acts as a contrarian indicator, explained CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole. An increase in bullish positions often coincides with local price peaks, followed by sharp declines. The current accumulation of long positions suggests a high risk of a significant sell-off after the consolidation in the $65,000-$75,000 range.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo believes Bitcoin will find its bottom in the $46,000 to $54,000 range. The CVDD metric currently stands at $45,500.
Old school on-chain models suggest a BTC bottom between 46k-54k. Also hints at how much time we have to wait.
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) March 30, 2026
Orange line correlates to the capital stored in BTC and it has been leaving since November.
CVDD Floor Model has the advantage of climbing over time, 45.5k right now. pic.twitter.com/PrfFTgwAyA
Woo also warned that a potential end to the global bull trend in the stock market could push cryptocurrencies even lower.
Joao Wedson, founder of the Alphractal platform, confirmed this forecast, noting a significant drop in the realized price of assets among short-term investors.
Short-Term Holder Realized Price has dropped significantly recently, and this is a sign that the pricing for a potential bottom has also moved lower.
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) March 29, 2026
Now, the blue line I mentioned earlier is even lower, which could confirm that Bitcoin may form a bottom around $50K or slightly… https://t.co/QKx3rVXZzV pic.twitter.com/qIRlgLd58e
According to his calculations, the potential market reversal point has shifted to around $50,000 or slightly lower. Wedson advised traders to closely monitor on-chain metrics and set alerts for these levels.
On March 31, 2026, Max Gnatyshin, head of operations at Toobit in the CIS, commented to ForkLog that a drop of Bitcoin to the $50,000 zone is quite possible. He believes this scenario, while not the base case, could materialize if macroeconomic pressures persist.
"Rising commodity prices and a slowdown in the Fed's rate cuts typically worsen liquidity for crypto: higher inflation expectations, prolonged high yields, and risky assets will receive less support in the coming months," the expert acknowledged.
Regarding the contrarian indicator of increasing long positions in the BTC/USD pair on Bitfinex, he noted that this pattern currently works primarily at extremes. The influx of institutional investors has changed the market structure, making this signal less linear.
In March, JPMorgan analysts stated that Bitcoin is weathering the Iranian crisis better than major precious metals.