Current trading conditions for Bitcoin suggest it is positioned below essential technical and on-chain valuation metrics, with past bear market trends indicating a possible bottom around $45,000.
By James Van Straten, AI Boost|Edited by Jamie Crawley Jun 29, 2026, 9:40 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on BTC Cost Basis (CheckonChain)SummaryShow- Bitcoin continues to trade below significant resistance levels, such as the True Mean Price, the 200-Day Moving Average, the 128-Day Moving Average, and the Short Term Holder Cost Basis, indicating persistent market weakness.
- Historically, Bitcoin's bear market cycles have often seen it bottom out 5-10% below crucial on-chain valuation metrics, suggesting a possible downside target near $45,000.
As it stands, Bitcoin BTC$59,960.35 is trading under $60,000, placing it in a "no man's land" where the price is caught between significant on-chain support and resistance levels. It has not managed to reclaim several vital technical and on-chain thresholds, indicating that the most likely direction remains downward.
Key valuation metrics are positioned above the current trading price. The True Mean Price, estimated at approximately $76,300, reflects the average acquisition cost of coins adjusted for lost or inactive supply, providing a clearer picture of the network's economic cost basis.
The 200-Day Moving Average, currently at $75,500, is a commonly watched technical indicator that smooths price movements over the past 200 days and is typically utilized to differentiate between long-term bullish and bearish trends. The 128-Day Moving Average, at $70,900, monitors Bitcoin's medium-term trend, while the Short Term Holder Cost Basis, at $69,600, indicates the average purchase price for those who have held Bitcoin for less than about 155 days.
Several critical on-chain support levels lie beneath Bitcoin’s current price. The Long Term Holder Cost Basis, at $49,900, represents the average cost basis for investors holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days. The Coin Time Price, set at $51,700, gauges Bitcoin's value after considering the age and economic significance of coins, and the Realized Price, at $53,200, shows the average price at which all circulating Bitcoin last transacted on-chain.
In past significant bear market lows, Bitcoin typically traded around 5-10% below these essential on-chain valuation metrics. If this historical trend holds, a potential cycle bottom could be expected in the vicinity of $45,000.
Bitcoin NewsAI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.Related AssetsBitcoin$59,960.350.41%Latest Crypto News- 1New MiCA regime in Europe, U.S. jobs report for June: Crypto Week Ahead51 minutes ago
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