The price of Bitcoin exceeded $67,000 following reports of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Despite this increase, derivatives metrics indicate a lack of confidence among market participants regarding the current rally.

Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.

At the time of writing, the price had corrected to $65,626 (-1.3% over 24 hours).

The annual premium on Bitcoin futures stood at 2%. The three-month indicator remains below the neutral level of 4%. In the options market, put contracts are trading at a 16% premium over call options, indicating investor concerns about a potential downturn.

Source: Laevitas.

The sharp price surge led to the liquidation of short positions totaling $210 million. Support for the price came from an influx of $86 million into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, the ongoing accumulation of assets by Strategy is influencing the market.

On a macroeconomic level, Brent crude oil prices fell to a three-month low. The Nasdaq index rose by 3% following SpaceX's IPO, bringing Elon Musk's company's market capitalization to $2.6 trillion.

Source: CompaniesMarketCap.

Bearish sentiment persists in the derivatives market. A price consolidation above $70,000 is possible if energy prices continue to decline and the Federal Reserve eases its policy.

Long-Term Accumulation

On June 11, Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio fell to -20. Since 2015, such a decline in this metric has always indicated a price bottom and the beginning of an accumulation phase.

Source: CryptoQuant/Cointelegraph.

The Sharpe ratio measures return adjusted for risk. A deeply negative value in this short-term indicator signifies not just low profitability but maximum loss per unit of volatility—indicating a sharp and deep decline. For many participants, this represents a capitulation point.

This signal is confirmed by on-chain data. Since February, exchange reserves have decreased by 80,000 BTC to 2.71 million coins. Meanwhile, demand from long-term investors has doubled. In the first half of June, accumulation addresses purchased 240,000 BTC.

Source: CryptoQuant.

The asset's price has remained below the 100-week moving average for 133 days. The indicator line is currently at $88,466.

Source: TradingView/Cointelegraph.

In past cycles, Bitcoin traded below this line for an average of 362 days before entering a sustained growth phase. The longest period was 532 days following the market crash in 2022. Current metrics suggest that the consolidation phase may last several more months.

On June 15, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan urged long-term investors to focus less on finding the bottom and more on the upcoming Bitcoin bull cycle.