With no new military actions reported between the United States and Iran and a drop in oil prices, Bitcoin has climbed back above $65,000, reflecting a 1.2% increase over the last 24 hours.

Hourly BTC/USDT chart from Binance. Source: TradingView.

Ethereum has also seen a surge, rising 4.2% to reach $1,960. Other cryptocurrencies like Solana and XRP experienced modest gains of 1-2%, as reported by CoinGecko.

US-Iran Ceasefire Affects Oil Prices

WTI oil futures kicked off the week with a significant drop of 7.2%. As of this writing, the price is at $82.73 per barrel. Brent crude has similarly fallen by 7.1%, now priced at $85.13. Nasdaq contracts slid by 0.6%, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.05%.

The conflict between the US and Iran began in late February, and while a ceasefire was established in the second quarter, it was short-lived. According to reports from media outlets, the US unexpectedly halted its attacks on July 24. In response, Tehran also ceased its retaliatory strikes, indicating it would not resume them as long as the US maintained the ceasefire.

Trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that the decline in oil prices will continue, which he suggests will positively impact the cryptocurrency market. He referred to Bitcoin holding above $65,000 as a "sign of strength."

Iran has paused its strikes against the United States.

The United States hasn't attacked Iran for a few days already.

In the middle of this all, Brent Oil has come down by 10% and the expectations are that this will continue to fall down over the next few days.

That would…

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 26, 2026

Technical Analysis Provides Mixed Signals

Trader known as CryptoFrog suggests that Bitcoin is still in a downtrend on a macro level. He identifies the $65,700 mark as crucial; a weekly candle closing above this level could indicate a trend reversal.

$BTC on the macro is still struggling to become bullish… 👀

As I’ve been talking about for weeks, the $65.7k level on the weekly chart is our prior BOS that we must see reclaimed via a weekly candle close before the macro charts objectively start to look bullish.

Since we… https://t.co/RN7KsGejC9 pic.twitter.com/0AWkBEB1H2

— CryptoFrog 🐸 (@CryptoFrogCalls) July 27, 2026

Market participant Daan Crypto Trades emphasizes that bulls need to break the local high from June and July around $67,000; if successful, the next target would be the daily moving average in the $72,000-73,000 range. He also noted that support exists at the lower boundary of the $60,000 range in the event of a downturn.

$BTC These levels are still all you need.

The level to break for the bulls is that local high from June/July at ~$67K. From there you can start targeting
the daily 200MA/EMA coming in around the $72K-$73K area.

On the downside, the high timeframe support to hold is that $60K… pic.twitter.com/IXWQ2PMX3C

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) July 26, 2026

On-Chain Data Lacks Confirmation for Reversal

Analyst Darkfost from CryptoQuant pointed out that Bitcoin has been on a "weak trajectory" since the beginning of the year. He estimates the combined demand in the spot and futures markets at -127,000 BTC, which is insufficient to spark a sustainable trend.

📊 Since the start of the year, Bitcoin has been facing a fairly poor dynamic.

—> Either spot and futures demand is contracting, or speculation alone is temporarily reviving the market, with futures demand amplifying while spot demand continues to contract.

This extended trend… pic.twitter.com/tOEAbMyJjr

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) July 27, 2026

According to his observations, the market is oscillating between two states: either buyer interest is contracting in both segments, or speculation is driving activity — futures are increasing while spot demand continues to decline. A similar pattern emerged during the previous bear market.

CryptoQuant noted that rallies have typically only begun when both spot and futures markets move in tandem. They previously observed that the April surge from $66,000 to $79,000 was speculative, as spot demand remained negative at that time.

Darkfost explained the current stabilization of prices as a result of seller exhaustion rather than a resurgence of buyers. This is an "important first step," but he warned that without panic selling amid very low volumes, a correction could still continue.

Joao Wedson, founder of the analytical firm Alphractal, views the market situation through four-year cycles. He reminded that the time from halving to the bottom of the bear phase is approximately 900 days. With 826 days already passed, he suggested that a bottom is being established and will form in the coming months.

The time between each Bitcoin Halving and the bottom of the following Bear Market has been approximately 900 days.

The current cycle is already at day 827.

Based on this pattern, we can say that Bitcoin is already building its price bottom, with a potential final bottom forming… pic.twitter.com/VdFapE4PCV

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) July 26, 2026

It's worth noting that in mid-July, Glassnode recorded a reversal of realized losses among Bitcoin holders who purchased coins in 2024-2025. In past cycles, such dynamics have frequently preceded the start of an upward trend.