Bitcoin has crossed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, a significant bullish indicator.
By Omkar Godbole, AI Boost3 minutes ago3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on BTC's price has crossed an important threshold. (Yorgos Ntrahas/Unsplash)SummaryShow- Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, indicating a potential end to its bear market.
- Bitcoin was trading at approximately $81,450 after a nearly 6% weekly gain and a 29% increase over the last 35 days.
- Historically, Bitcoin has avoided setting new lows after 11 of its 13 previous weekly closes above this average, but its future will depend on sustaining levels above approximately $78,115.
The last significant barrier preventing bitcoin
BTC$81,333.41 from experiencing a broader recovery has been surpassed.For the first time in 45 weeks, Bitcoin closed the week ending September 20 above its 50-week moving average, which Alex Thorn, Head of Galaxy Research, noted as a potentially crucial sign that the bear market may have concluded, paving the way for a new uptrend.
Throughout the week, Bitcoin rose nearly 6%, trading around the $81,000 mark, and marking a 29% increase over the past 35 days. This movement has pushed Bitcoin's weekly candlestick representation above the 50-week moving average, rather than just testing it.
This distinction is important.
Although Bitcoin trades continuously, its weekly candle closes at 23:59 UTC on Sundays, immediately followed by the opening of a new weekly candle. Analysts often give more significance to weekly or daily candles that close above major moving averages than to brief movements through them.
BTC's weekly price movements represented in candlestick form. (TradingView)Why is the 50-week average significant?
The 50-week moving average represents the average weekly closing price over the past year. In market analysis, it is often viewed as an indicator of Bitcoin's long-term trend.
During periods of strong growth, Bitcoin typically trades above this line. Conversely, during extended downturns, rallies frequently falter below it.
Galaxy has characterized this average as a ceiling during major declines in Bitcoin's price. Once the cryptocurrency dips below it, attempts to recover this level have historically failed until the market approaches a more sustainable low.
Successful breakouts above this average have signaled the end of bear markets and have often led to significant bull runs.
Galaxy's analysis of major Bitcoin downturns since 2011 revealed that Bitcoin closed a week above its 50-week moving average 13 times. In 11 of those instances, the market did not set a new low, indicating that the worst of the decline had likely passed.
Here are notable instances when such crossovers preceded substantial bull markets:
- After the crash in 2011, Bitcoin reclaimed this average in January 2012, marking the end of the decline, followed by a remarkable 600-fold surge, rising from around $2 to nearly $1,200 by late 2013.
- Post the 2014-2015 bear market, Bitcoin crossed back above the average in October 2015, not revisiting the cycle's low and achieving approximately a 100-fold rise from around $200 to nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
- After the 2018 crash, Bitcoin reclaimed the average in May 2019, avoiding a return to the December 2018 low. From a cycle low of about $3,200, Bitcoin experienced a roughly 22-fold increase, reaching a record high above $69,000 in November 2021.
- Following the market low in 2022, Bitcoin crossed above the average in March 2023 and maintained this position for over two years. From a low of around $15,500, Bitcoin surged roughly eightfold, peaking at about $126,000 in October 2025.
Newsletters
Crypto Daybook Americas - The latest moves in crypto markets, in contextMarket analysis for crypto traders and investors.PreviewSign upBy signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms & conditions and privacy policy.These multiples are approximate, as early Bitcoin price data is inconsistent. They are intended to illustrate the magnitude of subsequent rallies, not to imply that the moving-average crossover alone caused them.
History is not always a guarantee
While historical performance is instructive, it does not ensure future results, and the 50-week average has seen its share of failures.
Out of the 13 instances, two did not succeed. Both occurred during the volatile late 2021 to early 2022 period, when Bitcoin briefly rose above the average before declining and ultimately dropping towards $16,000. Galaxy identifies these failed attempts as the crossovers on December 26, 2021, and March 27, 2022.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading near $81,450, with the 50-week average positioned at approximately $78,115, according to CoinDesk data.
If historical patterns are any indication, this latest reclaim could suggest that the bear-market low might have been established around $60,000 in recent months. It also raises the potential for Bitcoin to continue its ascent towards new highs.
However, this possibility hinges on whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above the moving average in the upcoming weeks.
Bitcoin NewsPricesAI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.Related AssetsBitcoin$81,333.411.11%Latest Crypto News- 1Crypto platform Gemini’s stock is down 80% from its IPO. That’s reviving takeover speculation13 hours ago
- 2Coinbase, Robinhood, Circle could be early winners of SEC's tokenized-stock push, analysts say16 hours ago
- 3Crypto traders braced for a total wipeout this week but Bitcoin had other plans16 hours ago
- 4Clarity Act, we hardly knew ye: We look at what was in the bill and what's replacing it1 day ago
- 5'We have lost control': Crypto pioneer warns AI could trigger systemic banking and infrastructure shocks1 day ago
- 6Ripple says asset managers are preparing for XRP Ledger’s next payments upgrade1 day ago
- 7'The orange tie stays': Michael Saylor responds to venture capitalist's bitcoin obituary1 day ago
- 8Robinhood Chain fees collapse 97% even as transactions stay near record highs1 day ago
- 9Why Wall Street giants build tokenization money for institutions, not regular consumers1 day ago
- 10CFTC sends crypto rules to White House to review as Congress stalls on Clarity Act2 days ago
The Definitive Stablecoin Landscape Series: Asia Pacific
The Definitive Stablecoin Landscape Series: Asia Pacific
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
By CoinDesk ResearchSep 15, 2026Commissioned byRippleAs stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
Why it matters:
As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.
View Full ReportMore From Markets