The price of Bitcoin has risen above $82,000, reaching a three-month high. K33 Research noted that prolonged market pessimism is creating conditions for further growth.

Source: K33.

Funding rates in the derivatives market have remained in negative territory for 67 consecutive days. The average 30-day funding rate has set a record since spring 2020, marking the longest streak in the past decade.

Source: K33.

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, emphasized that this trend reflects traders' defensive sentiment. Historically, prolonged periods of negative funding have coincided with market bottoms.

According to analysts, buying Bitcoin during bearish periods yields higher returns compared to random investments. The probability of profit over a year during such times ranges from 83% to 96%, while purchasing on any random day yields only 55-70%.

Lunde added that the situation in the derivatives market poses a risk of a short squeeze. He stated that the indicators reflect the actual sentiments of participants rather than technical patterns. All previous periods with similar funding rates have proven to be favorable times for accumulating the asset.

Bitcoin and Key Resistance Levels

Analysts at BloFin compared the current market structure to the scenario in January. At that time, Bitcoin surged by 22%, reaching $98,000 before encountering the 200-day moving average (EMA). This was followed by a 38% drop to $60,000.

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💡 Is Bitcoin about to break higher, or repeat January’s rejection?

The current rally mirrors January, when BTC surged 22% to $98K, hit the 200D EMA, RSI entered overbought territory, and got rejected hard, dropping 38% to $60k.

🟠 BTC: Same resistance, different demand… https://t.co/ATgNcK6tAi pic.twitter.com/uLvsAiM30a

— BloFin Research (@BloFin_Academy) May 6, 2026

Currently, Bitcoin is again moving within an upward channel, and the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory. However, fundamental indicators appear stronger than at the beginning of the year:

  • In April, the net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $2.44 billion, the best result since last fall;
  • Major players and corporations are actively absorbing supply: Strategy purchased over 100,000 BTC, while whales accumulated 270,000 BTC in a month;
  • Demand from companies is 2.5 times higher than the volume of new coins mined.

The critical range for the asset is $83,000-84,000. A sustained move above the 200-day EMA would confirm a bullish trend.

Among external risks, experts highlight uncertainty following the change in the Fed's leadership and the impact of oil prices on global inflation. These factors could increase volatility and trigger outflows from risk assets.

Bitcoin Targeting $93,000

Analysts at XWIN Japan identified $93,000 as a key target for Bitcoin's price growth. They believe this level is influenced by the mechanics of price gaps on the CME.

Why $93,000 Is a Key Upside Target for Bitcoin

“CME gaps are not guarantees, but signals. They represent zones where positioning, liquidity, and market psychology converge, making them key reference points for future price action.” – By @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/H1rh2O2eIJ

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 6, 2026

Gaps occur due to differences in trading modes: CME futures operate only on weekdays, while the spot market is open 24/7. This results in low liquidity zones forming between Friday's closing price and Monday's opening price.

Experts emphasized that a gap is not merely a "magnet" for price but an area where no trades occurred. The market returns to such zones to adjust positions and replenish liquidity.

A significant factor is open interest (OI) — the total number of active contracts. High OI indicates an excess of leverage. When traders begin to close positions or face liquidations, the price tends to move toward liquidity concentration zones — often toward gaps.

One gap has already been closed by the market. The next target is the $93,000 area, which XWIN Japan considers a logical mid-term reference point.

Analysts cautioned that the movement may not be straightforward. If the volume of borrowed funds increases without real demand support in the spot market, the market may initially decline. Such a correction could wash out weak positions before a subsequent rise toward the upper target.

De-escalation in the Middle East

The price of Bitcoin surpassed $80,000 following a rise in the U.S. stock market. Analysts at QCP Capital linked this positive momentum to President Donald Trump's decision to suspend Operation Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz.

The reduction of tensions in the region led to falling oil prices and a weakening dollar. Investors interpreted this as a signal to buy risk assets. The S&P 500 index recorded its best performance since 2020, while Bitcoin confirmed its correlation with the stock sector.

The options market does not fully confirm a breakthrough. The monthly implied volatility remains around 41%, and demand for put options persists — participants are buying Bitcoin but continue to hedge risks.

Analysts highlighted key factors pressuring prices:

  • The situation in Japan: A weak yen and rising government bond yields may limit global liquidity;
  • Macroeconomics: Persistent inflation and high rates in the U.S.;
  • Energy resources: A potential return of rising oil prices.

For the rally to continue, Bitcoin needs to hold above the $82,000-83,000 zone. QCP Capital warned that until these levels are surpassed, any rise could be followed by a sell-off if external conditions worsen.

As a reminder, on May 5, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that Bitcoin would rise to $125,000 by the end of the year.