Summary
- Since May, over $4.8 billion has been withdrawn from U.S. Bitcoin ETF products, with experts suggesting that a peace deal alone won't restore institutional investment.
- The 25-delta options skew remains between -4% and -5%, indicating that traders are still prioritizing protection against downside risks rather than seeking upside potential.
- Analysts believe the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting and growing institutional interest might support Bitcoin's rebound.
Bitcoin surged to over $65,000 after President Trump announced a finalized agreement with Iran, yet investors are still wary about the sustainability of this momentum in the cryptocurrency market.
Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $65,860, reflecting a 2.2% increase in the last 24 hours and a 4% rise over the past week, based on CoinGecko data. This uptick follows Trump's posts on Truth Social where he boasted of achieving a “Great Deal” with Iran and announced the “toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz” and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.
Despite the current optimism surrounding the Iran negotiations, which have received independent confirmation from Pakistan’s Prime Minister before Trump's announcements, investors are unlikely to fully factor in a resolution until the official signing in Switzerland takes place on Friday, according to Markus Levin, Co-Founder of XYO.
He remarked that Bitcoin's relief rally has “partially arrived,” with its rise from the low $60,000s to approximately $65,800 recovering most of the geopolitical risk premium that had been accumulated in recent weeks.
Georgii Verbitskii, a derivatives trader and founder of TYMIO, noted that Bitcoin's current levels seem significantly oversold in terms of sentiment. He believes that most of the negative news has already been reflected in prices, as the market has been grappling with geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties for months.
However, despite the favorable news, prediction market participants maintain a bearish outlook on Bitcoin's future. On Myriad, which is owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, users assign a 67% probability that Bitcoin will drop to $55,000. Meanwhile, Kalshi users project that Bitcoin will finish the year at $69,000, representing a 45% decline from its peak of $126,080 reached in October 2025.
Bitcoin's Core Challenge
The recent U.S.-Iran agreement does not address Bitcoin's underlying issue of “genuinely soft institutional demand,” according to Levin. He emphasized, “A peace deal alone does not bring that capital back.”
This skepticism is significant as the market has often struggled to maintain upward trends based solely on positive news. This is partly due to Trump's history of claiming that a peace deal was imminent—having done so at least 38 times, as reported by CNN.
The cryptocurrency sector is also facing fundamental weaknesses linked to a lack of institutional interest, capital, and shifting attention, as previously noted by Decrypt. Since May, over $4.8 billion has exited Bitcoin ETF products in the U.S., according to SoSoValue data, indicating weak demand.
Moreover, the Bitcoin network has experienced its 11th-largest downward difficulty adjustment, with a reduction of 10.09% at block 953,568, marking the second-largest decline of 2026, as reported by Galaxy Research on Twitter. The firm attributed Bitcoin's 15% price decrease in June to the strain on miner margins.
Bitcoin just confirmed its 11th-largest downward difficulty adjustment ever: −10.09% (138.96T to 124.93T) at block 953,568, the 2nd-biggest drop of 2026.
A ~15% June price slide squeezed miner margins. The epoch ran 15.6 days vs the 14-day target as hashrate came offline.
⛏️⛏️ pic.twitter.com/VLTTiGoGFN
— Galaxy Research (@glxyresearch) June 14, 2026
The options market reinforces the prevailing bearish sentiment. The 25-delta skew is currently around -4% to -5%, as per GreeksLive data, suggesting that investors are still opting to pay a premium for downside protection rather than pursuing potential gains.
A hawkish indication from the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday could further boost “put demand and limit any rally stemming from the deal news,” Levin mentioned.
He anticipates that if Friday's signing proceeds smoothly and the Fed does not present any surprises, Bitcoin could target a range of $66,000 to $70,000 by the end of the second quarter. However, he remains optimistic for the year-end, predicting a retest of $100,000 or higher as “very much on the table.”
Conversely, Verbitskii does not foresee a significant drop from the current price levels without a negative catalyst, stating that the market has become “increasingly desensitized to headlines related to Iran.” He believes that investors view these risks as largely understood, expecting Bitcoin to “gradually recover towards the $70,000 range in the coming months.”