Bitcoin Remains Below $65,000 as Hormuz Deal Hopes Fade, XRP Nears $1

Markets Bitcoin Remains Below $65,000 as Hormuz Deal Hopes Fade, XRP Nears $1

Hopes for a resolution in the Strait of Hormuz trade have diminished following Trump's demand for 50 years of compensation from Iran, causing oil prices to rise to $89 and leaving crypto and equities stable ahead of a crucial CPI report.

By Oliver Knight, Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback 13 min ago 3 min read

Despite a slight recovery, Bitcoin is down 1.68% over the past 24 hours as President Trump’s insistence on 50 years of Iranian reparations quashed the positive sentiment surrounding the Hormuz reopening, which in turn pushed Brent crude prices up to $89.08, marking an increase of over 12% from last week’s low.

XRP is also facing pressure, with futures open interest seeing significant growth, threatening to dip below $1 for the first time since 2024. The CPI report due Wednesday is now seen as a pivotal event for the week.

The cryptocurrency market showed little movement on Tuesday after a drop overnight, as optimism regarding a deal in the Strait of Hormuz faded. Trump's compensation demand has dampened hopes for a quick resolution, contributing to a rise in Brent crude prices.

Currently, Bitcoin BTC$64,185.08 has seen a slight increase of 0.26% since midnight UTC, but it remains down 1.68% over the last day. Ether ETH$1,884.89 has outperformed Bitcoin slightly since midnight but is still down 2.4% for the day. Meanwhile, traditional markets are exhibiting a similar lack of movement, with U.S. equity index futures remaining stable as traders await Wednesday's CPI report.

Additionally, the sale of 1,690 BTC by Strategy on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive week of reductions, has added further pressure, as the company has not purchased Bitcoin since June.

Derivatives Positioning

• Futures volume spikes, open interest stable: Crypto futures trading volume surged by 51% to $143.15 billion within 24 hours, while total open interest (OI) remained around $115.6 billion, indicating turnover rather than new positions.
• Taker ratio shifts to neutral: The long-short taker volume ratio has balanced out, with both longs and shorts comprising almost equal volumes, contrasting with a bullish inclination observed a day prior.
• XRP leads in OI increases: XRP experienced the most significant increase in open interest, with futures contracts rising by 14% to 2.72 billion tokens, the highest level since October. XRP's position remains precarious as it risks falling below $1 for the first time since 2024, with a notable negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicating aggressive short trading.
• Other OI Movements: LINK, ETH, and HBAR are among the other tokens that saw increases in OI, while CC, ZEC, and AVAX led the declines.
• Bears dominate price trends: Most tokens are experiencing downward price pressure, as evidenced by negative 24-hour CVDs across many coins, including Bitcoin, with LINK and TRX being exceptions.
• Funding rates diverge: The funding rate for XMR is at an annualized 39%, the most bullish among major tokens, while CC's rate stands at -14%, indicating a bearish investor sentiment.
• Bitcoin volatility index rebounds: Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index increased nearly 5% to 38.64% as BTC's price fell below $64,000, suggesting traders should monitor for further volatility spikes due to its inverse relationship with spot price.
• Call skew weakens: In the Deribit options market, the one-week call skew for BTC and ETH has weakened and may turn negative, suggesting a potential downside bias if the upcoming CPI report is higher than anticipated, supporting prolonged Fed interest rate expectations.
• Implied volatility remains low: Currently, one-week implied volatility for BTC and ETH, derived from options prices, remains low, indicating minimal stress ahead of the inflation report.
• Volume favors upside bets: The 24-hour volume rankings indicate a preference for the BTC $70,000 call expiring on September 25 and the $2,000 ETH call expiring the same day.

Token Updates

• Curve DAO token CRV$0.2642 was notable for a 9.49% surge over 24 hours, marking a weekly gain of 27.29%, making it one of the standout performers in the DeFi space amidst market challenges.
• Lighter (LIT) continued its recovery, increasing by 6.40% over 24 hours and 2.26% since midnight to reach $2.43, now nearly 20% up for the week as the decentralized derivatives token rebounds from its July decline.
• Chainlink LINK$8.6758 rose by 2.59% since midnight, extending its weekly increase to 4.40% as institutional demand for oracle infrastructure aligns with the growing narrative around tokenized real-world assets.
• Zcash (ZEC) led the downturn, falling 1.97% since midnight to $486, giving back gains after several weeks of strong performance, with the wider privacy coin sector also under pressure, including a 0.72% drop for XMR.
• CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator has recovered from a low of 37/100 on Monday to 41/100, as investors look to capitalize on oversold tokens.