In a market where 38 out of the 100 CoinDesk 100 assets declined, Bitcoin Cash surged 32% over the past 24 hours due to a new CME futures listing.
By Oliver Knight, Omkar Godbole|Edited by Jamie Crawley32 minutes ago4 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Crypto rally stalls (CoinDesk Indices)SummaryShow- Bitcoin is trading at $86,379, reflecting a 0.24% increase since midnight UTC, while daily trading volume has decreased by 36% to $38 billion following Monday's surge.
- The market breadth has tightened significantly, with 38 of the 100 CoinDesk 100 assets declining, contrasting with 13 that were lower over the previous 24 hours, indicating recent weakness.
- Brent crude prices have dipped below $100 for the first time since September 9, fueled by optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran agreement, alleviating the last remnants of energy-related inflation concerns.
Despite the overall rise in the index, which increased by 0.67% to 1,926.99, the rally has shown signs of narrowing, with 38 of the 100 CoinDesk 100 assets down on the day. In the past 24 hours, however, the market was broader, with 87 assets rising and 13 declining, indicating that the recent downturn is a more recent development rather than a continuation from Tuesday.
Major cryptocurrencies have experienced mixed movements, with XRP (XRP) rising 3.3% to $1.62 and Bitcoin Cash
BCH$350.62 increasing 2.0% to $351.59, while Ether ETH$2,733.62 fell 0.089% to $2,750.24, and Chainlink LINK$12.88 decreased by 0.0053%.Brent crude has retreated below $100 for the first time since September 9, currently trading at $99.13 after peaking at $108 earlier this month. This drop is linked to speculation about a possible agreement between the U.S. and Iran, with a Qatari mediator currently engaging U.S. officials, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian scheduled to speak at the UN General Assembly later today.
In parallel, traditional safe-haven assets are seeing declines; gold is down 0.85% to $4,321 and silver has dropped 2.2% to $65.53. Meanwhile, the dollar index has risen 0.21% to 100.76, and U.S. equity futures remain relatively unchanged, highlighting crypto as one of the few sectors still attracting interest.
Derivatives Positioning
- Futures volume declines as open interest increases: The trading volume for crypto futures has dropped by 21% to $227 billion in the last 24 hours, while open interest (OI) has risen by 1% to $159.4 billion. The market has shifted to a predominantly short position for the first time in over a week, with shorts making up 51% of the volume. This change is noteworthy, as decreasing volume combined with rising OI and a short-heavy flow suggests a potential market pullback.
- Binance borrowing costs nearing a multi-month peak: The borrowing rate for USDT margin is currently at 5.49%, just shy of last week's high of 5.52%, marking the highest level since October. Elevated borrowing costs contribute to the expense of maintaining leveraged long positions, adding a challenge in light of the bearish flow.
- BTC OI not confirming the dip: Bitcoin's price fell below $86,000 during European trading hours, yet OI remains stable near Tuesday's 710K BTC. A price decline without a corresponding increase in OI indicates a process of de-risking rather than a strong bearish sentiment.
- Whale positioning shows cooling, not reversal: The long/short account ratio for whales on Binance has dipped below 0.98, while the position ratio stands at 1.97, down from over 2.3 recently. Whales on OKX and Bybit are closer to neutral around 1, indicating a trend of large accounts reducing their long positions rather than taking short ones.
- XRP OI increases, but not during the pullback: Futures OI for XRP rose for a second consecutive day to 2.50 billion tokens, the highest since August 20. However, this increase primarily occurred during Thursday's earlier rally, rather than during the European session's drop from $1.69 to $1.59. According to Coinglass, Binance whale sentiment on XRP is currently "extremely bearish".
- Bitcoin Cash stands out with supportive positioning: Bitcoin Cash has surged over 30% following the announcement of CME futures, with OI climbing nearly 7% to its highest level since August 22, reflecting an 8% annualized funding rate and the most favorable 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta among major assets. These indicators suggest a rally driven by long positions and not merely a reaction to headlines.
- Funding costs rise in NEAR and smaller altcoins: NEAR long positions are facing an annualized funding rate of 43%. Among smaller assets, the funding rate for BTW has exceeded 100%, a level typically indicating crowded long positions that could be at risk of a significant correction.
- Implied volatility remains low despite the rally: Deribit's DVOL is currently around 38%, placing it in the 23rd percentile of its annual range. According to Deribit, this suggests that implied volatility is relatively inexpensive compared to historical spot momentum, indicating that options are not factoring in much exuberance even as spot prices continue to rise.
- Options flow favors higher strike prices with support below: Open interest for calls is building at $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000, primarily through condor and butterfly structures, while open interest at $75,000 and below indicates that traders view this as a solid support level.
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- Bitcoin Cash BCH$350.62 is the standout performer, rising 32% over the past 24 hours to $351.59, following the CME's announcement regarding BCH futures alongside Uniswap (UNI).
- Memecoins have diverged from the broader market, with Bonk BONK$0.0₅4071 increasing 14% since midnight and 17% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the Pudgy Penguins NFT collection token PENGU$0.01084 rose 8.3% and 20%, although the CoinDesk Memecoin Index fell 0.31% today as SPX6900 (SPX) dropped 1.1%, Pepe PEPE$0.0₅4820 fell 1.0%, and Pump.fun PUMP$0.004291 decreased by 1.9%.
- LayerZero, an interoperability token, gained 22% over 24 hours to $1.44, while indexing protocol token The Graph GRT$0.02678 rose 14%, both significantly outperforming the CoinDesk 100's overall 2.7% gain in the same timeframe.
- The DeFi Select Index (DFX) added 0.83% on the day and 9.6% over 24 hours, marking the strongest performance among CoinDesk indices, primarily driven by gains in Aave AAVE$149.06 at $151.18 and Aerodrome Finance (AERO), which increased by 6.1%, rather than being widespread across the sector.
- Worldcoin WLD$0.4560 led the decliners, down 3.0%, followed by Polkadot DOT$1.1650 at 2.9%, and Solana-based liquid-staking token Jito JTO$0.5102 at 2.8%, with Jito also down over the last 24 hours by 0.16%.
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As stablecoins transition into regulated finance, APAC is emerging as a critical testing ground. This report outlines the region’s regulations, applications, and the role of RLUSD.
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