Bitcoin remains stable within the $82,000-$85,000 range, with mixed altcoin performance as the new quarter commences.
As the new quarter begins, Bitcoin remains firmly within the price range of $82,000 to $85,000, continuing a trend of sideways trading that has characterized the past week. On Wednesday, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $85,000 following disappointing U.S. inflation data, which eased concerns about imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. However, this upward momentum proved short-lived, with spot ETFs failing to provide necessary support.
Recent data from SoSoValue revealed that U.S.-listed ETFs saw a net outflow of $148.7 million on Wednesday, breaking a nine-day inflow streak that had accumulated $3.08 billion—the highest of the year. This inflow had peaked at nearly $1 billion daily on September 21, but the rate of new investments has since decreased.
Bitfinex analysts remarked that the daily inflow rate is crucial for overcoming selling pressure, indicating that a significant increase in daily investments is needed to sustain price growth. They noted that the Bitfinex Absorption-to-Emission Ratio (BAER), which tracks BTC purchases by ETFs against miners' daily output, has dropped dramatically from 25.6x on September 21 to just 1.8x as of September 29. They estimated that to absorb the breakeven supply of 1.39 million BTC, which is situated between $84,000 and $86,500, the BAER must return to around 5.0x, equating to approximately $190 million per day in inflows.
FxPro's chief analyst, Alex Kuptsikevich, highlighted ongoing macroeconomic concerns, stating that the persistent bond sell-off poses a significant risk, potentially triggering a broader market sell-off. He mentioned that while historical trends show that turmoil in traditional finance can benefit crypto markets, predicting the timing of such shifts remains challenging.
Meanwhile, smaller cryptocurrencies are experiencing notable gains, with Stacks’ STX token rising 25% in just 24 hours. Other tokens like LIT, JST, and ENA have also seen increases of over 5% recently. However, the broader altcoin market is mixed, with the CoinDesk DeFi Select Index showing a modest 1% gain, while other indexes have had minor fluctuations.
Derivatives Market Insights
- Open interest in BTC has decreased to $20.9 billion from $21.8 billion, with stable funding rates around 3% annualized across various exchanges. The term structure on Deribit indicates a rise in the three-month annualized basis from under 5% to over 6%, suggesting growing demand for leveraged long positions.
- The call/put options ratio has soared to 83% in favor of calls, up from 66/34, while the one-week delta skew has relaxed to around 4% from about 15%. The at-the-money term structure remains in contango, with the front end at approximately 29.5% and the long end at 40% extending to mid-2027. The overall volatility remains calm, showcasing heavy call activity with minimal premium for upside risk.
- Recent liquidations totaled $100 million in the past 24 hours, evenly split between long and short positions. BTC accounted for $100 million, ETH for $51 million, and other assets for $26 million in liquidated notional value. The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates that $84,800 is a significant liquidation level to monitor if prices increase.
Cryptocurrency Performance Overview
- The Stacks token (STX) surged around 26% in 24 hours, reaching $0.39, boosted by Muneeb Ali's appointment as CEO of Stacks Labs, which aims to enhance Bitcoin staking adoption.
- Midnight (NIGHT) increased approximately 23% over the last day to $0.04, continuing a rally that has persisted for several sessions.
- Ethena (ENA) and Near Protocol (NEAR) also performed well, with increases of about 11% and 10%, respectively, over the past 24 hours. ENA traded near $0.27, marking a weekly gain of over 30%.
- Quant (QNT) traded around $290, reflecting a 9% increase within 24 hours. This token has more than tripled in value recently due to volatile trading patterns.
- Conversely, Avalanche (AVAX) and Internet Computer (ICP) saw declines of about 5% and 4%, respectively, reversing some of their earlier gains.
