Bitcoin has commenced the new quarter while remaining trapped in the familiar price range of $82,000 to $85,000, continuing a trend of sideways and volatile trading that has persisted for over a week.

On Wednesday, prices briefly exceeded $85,000, influenced by U.S. inflation data that fell short of expectations, which reduced speculation around potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. However, the upward momentum could not be sustained, and spot ETFs failed to provide support.

Data from SoSoValue indicates that U.S.-listed ETFs experienced a net outflow of $148.7 million on Wednesday, marking the end of a nine-day streak of inflows that totaled $3.08 billion, the highest year-to-date. This inflow streak saw daily contributions peaking near $1 billion on September 21, but the inflow rate subsequently declined.

Analysts from Bitfinex noted, “Daily pace remains the key determinant for clearing overhead supply,” suggesting that an increase in daily inflows is necessary for price increases to continue.

The Bitfinex Absorption-to-Emission Ratio (BAER), which measures the BTC purchased by ETFs against the daily output from miners (approximately 450 BTC), has decreased from 25.6x on September 21 to 1.8x as of September 29. The analysts added, “Absorbing the 1.39M BTC breakeven supply (which sits between $84,000 and $86,500) requires the BAER to recover toward 5.0x (~$190 million/day).”

Chief analyst Alex Kuptsikevich from FxPro highlighted macroeconomic concerns, stating, “The persistence of the bond sell-off is a very worrying sign, capable of triggering a sell-off across all markets almost overnight. It is easy to find periods in history when turmoil in traditional finance has benefited crypto. Still, it is impossible to predict when the market will shift from caution to panic.”

In the meantime, smaller cryptocurrencies such as Stacks’ STX token have shown remarkable performance, soaring 25% in just 24 hours. Other tokens like LIT, JST, and ENA have also gained more than 5% during the same period.

However, the overall altcoin landscape remains mixed, with the CoinDesk DeFi Select Index being the only one to show a gain of 1% in the last 24 hours. The Computing Select and CoinDesk 80 Indexes saw slight increases of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, while others experienced minor declines.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Open interest in BTC has decreased to $20.9 billion from $21.8 billion, with funding rates remaining stable near 3% annualized across various venues. The term structure on Deribit showed a pick-up in the 3-month annualized basis from under 5% to over 6%, indicating a stronger demand for leveraged long positions.
  • The 24-hour call/put options ratio surged to 83% in favor of calls (up from 66/34). The one-week delta skew has eased to approximately 4% from about 15%, while the ATM term structure remains in contango but slightly lower — around 29.5% for the front end and 40% for the long end extending to mid-2027. The volatility environment remains calm, characterized by heavy call activity but little premium being paid for upside risk.
  • According to Coinglass data, liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled $100 million, split evenly between long and short positions. BTC accounted for $100 million, ETH for $51 million, and other assets for $26 million in terms of notional liquidations. The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $84,800 as a critical liquidation level to watch in the event of a price increase.

Token Performance

  • The Stacks token (STX) surged approximately 26% over a 24-hour period, reaching $0.39, making it one of the top performers among large-cap cryptocurrencies. This surge coincides with Muneeb Ali's appointment as CEO of Stacks Labs, as the project aims to enhance the adoption of its Bitcoin staking products.
  • Midnight (NIGHT) saw a significant jump of around 23% over the last 24 hours, reaching $0.04, continuing a rally that has seen the privacy-centric token gain for several consecutive sessions.
  • Ethena (ENA) and the Near Protocol token (NEAR) also performed well, rising about 11% and 10%, respectively, in the past 24 hours. ENA traded near $0.27, extending its weekly gain to over 30%.
  • Quant (QNT) continued its volatile trend, trading around $290, reflecting a roughly 9% increase over 24 hours in some market snapshots. The interoperability token has more than tripled in value over the past week, driven by sharp rallies and reversals.
  • Conversely, Avalanche (AVAX) and Internet Computer (ICP) experienced declines of about 5% and 4%, respectively, over the last 24 hours, reversing some of the gains made on Tuesday.