Bitcoin has experienced declines in both the first and second quarters of 2026, marking only the third occasion it has begun a year in this manner. In the previous occurrences, 2018 and 2022, the latter half did not bring any recovery.
By Shaurya Malwa|Edited by Jamie Crawley Jul 1, 2026, 12:30 p.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on SummaryShow- In 2026, Bitcoin has begun the year with two consecutive quarters of losses, plunging approximately 22% in Q1 and 14% in Q2, a trend previously observed only during the bearish years of 2018 and 2022.
- Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience weak performance in Q3, followed by strong recoveries in Q4, but this trend faltered in 2018 and 2022, where typical rallies turned into significant declines.
- The current downturn seems to stem from consistent selling rather than panic, linked to unprecedented outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, low on-chain activity, a robust dollar, and a shift of investor interest towards AI stocks, with some experts suggesting $40,000 as the next critical support level.
Bitcoin BTC$58,447.53 concluded the first half of 2026 with losses in both quarters, placing it in a precarious position this year.
The leading cryptocurrency saw a decline of 22.2% in the first quarter followed by a 14.09% drop in the second, based on Coinglass data, and began trading just over $59,000 as Q3 commenced.
Such consecutive losses at the start of the year have only occurred twice before in Bitcoin's history, specifically in 2018 and 2022, both of which are regarded as some of the worst years for the asset.
The subsequent halves of those years did not provide any recovery. In 2018, the third quarter managed a slight 3.6% increase before the fourth quarter plummeted by 42%. In 2022, the third quarter fell by 2.6%, with the fourth quarter declining nearly 15%.
Both years were characterized by structural bear markets, with 2018 impacted by the collapse of the initial-coin-offering bubble and 2022 affected by the failures of the Terra stablecoin and the FTX exchange.
Typically, Bitcoin's seasonal trends show a much stronger fourth quarter, averaging a 77% gain with a median of around 48%, which has historically salvaged otherwise mediocre years.
In contrast, the third quarter has generally been the weakest, often remaining flat. Thus, one would normally expect a quiet Q3 followed by a strong finish in Q4. However, in both 2018 and 2022, this seasonal strength was overridden by bear market conditions, leading to the fourth quarter being one of the worst instead.
While a comparison of two years may not provide a definitive outlook, both instances were marked by specific collapses that do not have a direct parallel in the current environment. This does not imply that 2026 must follow the same path as 2018 or 2022; however, it does suggest that the prior instances of starting the year with such weakness were indicative of deeper structural issues rather than temporary dips.
The categorization of 2026 as such hinges on the underlying factors driving the selling, which appear more gradual than panic-driven.
Record outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have been observed over the past month, the number of active users on the blockchain remains at a low range, and there has been a steady movement of capital into AI stocks, which recently reported their best quarterly performance in years, while the cryptocurrency market has struggled.
Additionally, a strong dollar, further bolstered this week by the Japanese yen's drop to a 40-year low, has added to the pressure on Bitcoin.
FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich has identified $40,000 as the next significant support level, should that threshold fail. The third quarter has begun with a slight increase of about 1%, leaving the future uncertain.
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