Summary
- Bitcoin is currently priced at $83,823, showing signs of a strong upward trend, yet it remains below the $84,433 mark.
- Traders estimate a 48% chance for Bitcoin to reach $90,000 this month and a mere 7% for it to achieve a new all-time high before 2027.
- The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to a range of 3.75%-4% on September 16, while the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.289%. Additionally, spot ETFs saw outflows totaling $148.69 million on September 30.
As October kicks off, often referred to as "Uptober" in the cryptocurrency community due to its historically positive market performance, it marks a shift from the previous month, known as "Red September"—which turned out to be less negative than anticipated. The question now is how Bitcoin will perform.
Starting October at $83,823, Bitcoin has seen a slight increase of 0.28% today, following a September that was on track to be its best month ever until the very end.
Myriad: Predict how high Bitcoin will go!.Bitcoin recorded a 7.33% increase for September, narrowly beating the previous year's 7.29% record for that month. Ultimately, a market correction led to a 6.33% gain by the end of September, still positive and overcoming the so-called Red September curse, but not quite a record-breaking performance.
Now, as we enter Uptober, the month has historically provided an average return of 19.92% for crypto investors, with a median return of 14.71% since 2013, according to CoinGlass.
Last year, however, was an anomaly. October 2025 ended with a decline of 3.69%, marking only the third negative October since 2013. This raises the question of how this October will unfold, considering the broader economic landscape.
The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16 brought rates to a range of 3.75% to 4%. This marked the first increase since July 2023, with unanimous support. Higher interest rates typically deter investment in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, as "cheap money" becomes less available, prompting investors to gravitate towards safer options like Treasury bonds.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted that inflation "remains elevated," with the Fed's median forecast indicating one more 25-basis-point hike this year, with the next decision set for October 28.
Bond yields have responded accordingly, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.289% and the 30-year at 5.632%, both reaching 52-week highs. Since Bitcoin does not yield any interest, rising Treasury rates are viewed as a direct competitor for traders.
Stock markets are also reacting negatively to the rate hikes, as both the S&P 500 and Dow recorded losses in September amid rising yields. August's PCE inflation figures were more favorable than expected, coming in at an annual rate of 3.4%, compared to the anticipated 3.7%, with core inflation at 3.0% against a forecast of 3.3%.
On the ETF front, Bitcoin ETFs experienced inflows of approximately $3.08 billion over a nine-day period ending September 29. This streak concluded with net outflows of $148.69 million on September 30, as reported by Decrypt’s Bitcoin ETF tracker. Total net assets currently exceed $101 billion, though figures may vary slightly depending on the source.
Bitcoin ETF net flows. Image: DecryptDuring the week of September 21, the inflow was around $2.4 billion, highlighted by a single day that saw $999 million. However, this week has already recorded net outflows of $51.42 million.
According to Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders are currently giving a 90% probability to Bitcoin reaching a peak of $85,000, with a flat performance being the safest bet. There’s also a 70% likelihood for Bitcoin to hit $87,500, as per Myriad's odds.
In a separate market, traders assign just a 7% chance that Bitcoin will set a new all-time high before 2027, which would require a significant price increase from current levels, a scenario considered quite unlikely.
Bitcoin Price: Strong Trends but Limited Movement
Today's daily candlestick opened at $83,588.27, fluctuating between $83,134.08 and $84,360.88, currently resting at $83,823.14. This reflects a pullback from the recent high of $87,354.33 after bouncing from $74,977.57.
The Average Directional Index (ADX), which assesses the strength of a trend regardless of its direction, is at 41.5, significantly above the 25 threshold indicating a genuine trend, with the positive directional line surpassing the negative one. This suggests that buyers are currently in control.
Exponential moving averages (EMAs), which give more weight to recent prices, show the 50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA, indicating an upward short-term trend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures buying momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, is at 61.8, indicating bullish sentiment without reaching the 70 mark, where profit-taking typically begins. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is currently "off," suggesting that the volatility compression has already been released, and Bollinger Bands, which measure price deviation from the average, are widening.
Looking ahead, the month is filled with potential catalysts. The September jobs report will be released on October 2, followed by FOMC minutes on October 7, CPI data on October 14, and the Fed's decision on October 28. Myriad's October market closes at 11:59 p.m. ET on October 31.
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or other types of advice.