The leading cryptocurrency has come to a standstill near the $77,000 mark. A lack of spot demand is hindering its movement as investors await the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates.

Hourly BTC/USDT chart from Binance. Source: TradingView.

According to COINDREAM, the current market dynamics resemble the period from January to March, when price movements were primarily influenced by derivatives.

Bitcoin’s Rally Lacks Conviction Without Spot Support

“Rallies without sustained spot demand are less convincing. Spot demand remains weak, leaving the current advance without solid underlying support.” – By COINDREAM pic.twitter.com/Lwlq9sO6lu

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 14, 2026

"Rallies without sustained spot demand appear less credible. Demand remains weak, leading to a lack of solid foundational support for the current rise," the firm noted.

Experts suggest that in the current environment, risk management takes precedence over expectations for prolonged increases in Bitcoin’s price.

Analyst Alex Adler Jr. highlighted that in the past day, the derivatives pressure index has dropped further into negative territory, from -25.36 to -60.8. This indicator has remained below zero since September 6.

Source: Alex Adler Jr.'s blog.

Additionally, the Coinbase Premium Index has also been in negative territory since the same date. This metric indicates seller dominance but does not clarify whether short positions are increasing or long positions are being closed.

Source: Alex Adler Jr.'s blog.

"The price is under pressure, but the data does not suggest buyer dominance. A sustained move above zero in the derivatives index, along with a return to a positive zone in the average 48-hour Coinbase premium, would signal improvement. The primary risk remains a price drop if negative pressure continues," Adler Jr. emphasized.

Market Braces for Risks

Market attention is currently fixated on the procedural vote for the GENIUS Act (September 15) and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting (September 16). However, analysts at Santiment believe that positioning data indicates that market participants began de-risking their positions last week.

Everyone is watching Tuesday’s cloture vote and Wednesday’s Fed. The positioning data says the market already made its move.

📊 Coin-denominated open interest fell from 321,497 BTC on Sep 3 to 278,151 on Sep 11, a decrease of 43,346 coins or 13.5%.

📉 Price fell 5% over the same… pic.twitter.com/b1NRsXRRqF

— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) September 14, 2026

From September 3 to September 11, Bitcoin's open interest dropped from 321,497 BTC to 278,151 BTC, a 13.5% decline. Meanwhile, the price only fell by 5% during the same period, indicating no overvaluation effect.

The current positioning is approximately 20% lower than the levels seen prior to the mid-August rally. The decline halted on September 11 and has shown a slight increase over the last two sessions.

"News headlines will appear on Tuesday; positioning changed last week," Santiment noted.

It is worth mentioning that CryptoQuant concluded that for Bitcoin to confirm a new bullish market, it needs to establish itself above $81,700.