Bitcoin has stalled near the $80,000 mark, pressured by investor sell-offs as the market returns to a profit zone, according to analysts at XWIN Japan.

Conversely, demand is being fueled by inflows into ETFs and a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields, the experts noted.

XWIN Japan reports that nearly all investor groups are back in the green. The unrealized profit indicator stands at:

  • 21.1 for long-term holders;
  • 13.4 for short-term holders;
  • 13.9 for capital aged under one month;
  • 5.3 for the newest investors.
Source: CryptoQuant.

"This indicates a healthier market, but it also means that more holders now have the opportunity to realize profits," the analysts pointed out.

Additionally, XWIN Japan highlighted the Short-Term and Long-Term Holder SOPR ratio. At prices around $80,000, the metric rose to approximately 1.4, indicating that long-term holders were realizing profits more actively. Subsequently, the indicator fell to 0.93, suggesting a stronger realized outcome among short-term investors.

XWIN Japan forecasts that a sustained breakout above $80,000, with continued demand in ETFs and the spot market, could pave the way towards $88,000-$90,000. Conversely, losing support at $75,000 could diminish the profitability of short-term holders and accelerate a correction.

Transitional Phase

Analyst going by the pseudonym GugaOnChain assessed the market using the Delta-Thermo Market Multiple (DTMM) index, noting that at around $78,000, the value of the indicator was 2.03.

Source: CryptoQuant.

The author described the current situation as a transitional macro zone — Bitcoin has moved away from the accumulation area at 1.5x but has yet to gain momentum to enter the expansion zone at 2.5x.

"The global funding rate is at a neutral level (0.0056), indicating a lack of directed leverage in the short term. Simultaneously, the negative Coinbase Premium Index [...] shows a lack of buying pressure from the U.S. spot market," GugaOnChain added.

Meanwhile, analysts from Arab Chain reported that Bitcoin's open interest on Binance has recently surged to a three-month high, reaching approximately $9.54 billion. This increase may signal a return of capital and activity in the futures market, but it also raises the risk of liquidations during a sharp price reversal.

As a reminder, in August, CryptoQuant experts concluded that digital gold might be nearing the end of its bearish phase, as on-chain metrics indicate the first signs of a recovery in spot demand.