Throughout 2026, the first cryptocurrency is unlikely to reach a new all-time high, according to Keith Alan, co-founder of the trading resource Material Indicators.
— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) January 7, 2026
He stated that Bitcoin's current movement is influenced by the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The expert believes that a return to $87,000 is just a matter of time.
Currently, bulls are trying to maintain a defensive line at $92,000, while whales are targeting a deeper test of support near the yearly opening price of $87,000.
“Their goal is to wait for the formation of a 'golden cross' on the daily chart, which will signal the next phase of growth,” Alan noted.
This refers to the crossing of the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA). A short-term SMA crossing above a long-term one is traditionally interpreted as a resumption of upward momentum on shorter timeframes.
However, before this “inevitable” step, the market must return to the yearly opening level for a retest of its strength.
The longer-term outlook also appears murky, the analyst emphasized. A combination of several bearish signals suggests that the BTC/USD pair is unlikely to reach new historical highs before 2027.
Here's the written analysis for $BTC and $ETH:
— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) January 5, 2026
After an 11-month uptrend that began with the 2024 Election Day Trump Pump, and took Bitcoin to an ATH at $126k, $BTC bulls ran out of momentum and closed the year with a red candle, down 6.5% from the ‘25 Yearly Open.
Ethereum…
“A lot can change in six months and disprove this scenario, but at the moment, it's easier to build a logical model where the price declines after the current bullish momentum is exhausted,” Alan wrote.
For a market reversal to be confirmed, two key conditions must be met:
- The weekly RSI must close above 41.
- The price must demonstrate weekly closes above the 50-week moving average, currently at $101,500.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $90,000, having dropped 2.3% in the last 24 hours.
Previously, a prolonged sideways trend was predicted by CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju. He stated that the influx of capital into the first cryptocurrency has dried up, with liquidity shifting to stocks and gold.
Three “Checkpoints”
Several experts expect Bitcoin to reach new historical highs in 2026. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, stated that for the crypto market to achieve an ATH, it must overcome three “checkpoints.”
The first and most crucial is the successful passage of the Clarity Act through the U.S. Congress. Its approval will create legal clarity and serve as a foundation for long-term industry growth, according to the expert.
The second condition is the complete dissipation of the effects of the October 10-11, 2025 crash, when liquidation volumes exceeded $19 billion in a single day. Hougan noted that the market failed to resume growth in the fourth quarter due to community concerns about potential sell-offs by large market makers.
“The specter of these sales hung over the market like a thick fog. But the good news is that if such an event were to happen, it likely would have already occurred. […] I believe one of the factors that allowed the market to rise at the beginning of this year was that investors left October 10 behind,” the expert noted.
The third factor Hougan identifies is the overall stability of the stock market. Although the direct correlation is low, sharp fluctuations on Wall Street—such as a 20% drop in the S&P 500—will negatively impact cryptocurrencies.
“I don’t claim to have special expertise regarding the stock market. Some are concerned about a potential bubble in AI, however, predictive markets currently assess the likelihood of a recession in 2026 as relatively low, with an approximately 80% chance of S&P 500 growth,” he concluded.
Recall that in late December, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz predicted the start of a powerful rally in the crypto market in 2026.