Analyst Keith Alan predicts Bitcoin will not reach new highs until 2027, citing bearish market signals and conditions for recovery.
Analyst Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, forecasts that Bitcoin is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high throughout 2026. He attributes the current price movements to a struggle between buyers and sellers, with a focus on a target price of $87,000.
At present, Bitcoin bulls are attempting to hold the price above $92,000, while larger investors, or whales, are probing for stronger support near the yearly opening price of $87,000. Alan explained that these players are waiting for a "golden cross" on the daily chart, which occurs when the 21-day simple moving average crosses above the 50-day average, indicating potential upward momentum.
“Their goal is to wait for the formation of a 'golden cross' on the daily chart, which will signal the next phase of growth,” Alan noted.
However, he cautioned that before any significant upward movement occurs, the market must first retest the yearly opening level.
Alan’s long-term outlook remains grim, suggesting that Bitcoin will not see new highs until after 2027, driven by several bearish signals. He remarked that, while market conditions could change, the prevailing trend indicates a decline after the current bullish momentum wanes.
For a market reversal to take hold, two conditions need to be satisfied: the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) must close above 41, and Bitcoin must consistently close above the 50-week moving average, currently at $101,500. As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $90,000, reflecting a 2.3% decline in the past day.
Earlier predictions of prolonged stagnation were echoed by CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, who pointed out that liquidity for Bitcoin is shifting towards stocks and gold, reducing new capital inflows into the cryptocurrency.
Key Conditions for Future Growth
Despite the bearish sentiment, some analysts still see potential for Bitcoin to reach new highs in 2026. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, identified three critical conditions that must be met:
- The successful passage of the Clarity Act in the U.S. Congress, which would provide legal clarity and support long-term industry growth.
- The complete recovery from the market crash on October 10-11, 2025, which saw over $19 billion liquidated in a single day.
- The stability of the stock market, as major fluctuations could adversely affect cryptocurrencies.
“The specter of these sales hung over the market like a thick fog... I believe one of the factors that allowed the market to rise at the beginning of this year was that investors left October 10 behind,” Hougan stated.
Lastly, despite concerns about a potential bubble in AI investments, Hougan noted that predictive markets currently suggest a low likelihood of a recession in 2026, with a strong chance of growth for the S&P 500.
