Bitcoin remains stuck in a range between $60,000 and $70,000, as spot demand shows early absorption and derivative positions are being reassessed. This is noted in Glassnode's weekly report.
“Volatility is decreasing and positions are balancing out, but without a clear catalyst, the market lacks the confidence needed for a sustainable breakthrough,” analysts stated.
One of the most persistent factors holding back growth is the significant volume of supply acquired at prices above $80,000, which is currently held at unrealized losses.
This group of investors, who have endured over six months of a bear market, faces two choices: sell on any recovery to minimize losses or capitulate psychologically as the decline continues.
A large cluster of wallets has formed, having purchased Bitcoin at prices ranging from $80,000 to $126,000.
Wallet clusters by BTC purchase price. Source: Glassnode.
“Addressing this issue will likely require either a significant price drop to attract new buyers or a prolonged period during which these coins are transferred to more committed holders,” experts noted.
The indicator for the total number of coins at a loss shows structural similarities to conditions in the second quarter of 2022. The smoothed 30-day metric has surpassed 8.4 million BTC.
Total BTC at a loss. Source: Glassnode.
At the same time, the realized losses of long-term holders are increasing, with daily losses rising to $200 million.
Realized losses of long-term holders. Source: Glassnode.
“There are early signs of stabilization in the spot markets: the 30-day moving average delta of spot trading volume on Coinbase has slightly increased in the positive direction in the latest data,” Glassnode emphasized.
However, the strength of the bears is bolstered by increased interest in short positions in the derivatives market. The company believes that further buying pressure will be needed for a more sustainable recovery.
It’s worth noting that the gap between the spot and realized price of the first cryptocurrency has narrowed from 120% at the end of 2024 to the current 21%.