The price of the leading cryptocurrency has stabilized within a narrow range around $77,500. Following the holidays in the U.S., market activity remains low, and investors are exercising caution.

Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.

Traders on Polymarket estimate a 75% chance that the current week will close above $76,000.

Source: Polymarket.

Momentum Fades

According to a report from Glassnode, the price momentum indicator has dropped by 21.7% over the past week, reflecting weakened price dynamics and increased selling pressure.

— glassnode (@glassnode) May 25, 2026

The recovery in prices has been accompanied by a cooling of speculative demand:

  • Spot volumes have decreased by 10%;
  • Open interest in futures has fallen by 3.5%.

Market maker Enflux noted that there is a "buyer" in the market, but large capital is hesitant to increase positions.

2023 Lows

Analyst Darkfost pointed out a critical decline in activity. According to him, monthly spot trading volumes for Bitcoin have fallen to levels typical of a deep bear market.

🗞️ BTC Spot Volumes Have Crashed 81% Since October 2025.

Bitcoin spot trading volumes have now fallen to levels typically seen during bear markets.
You have to go back to July 2023 to find a month with spot volumes this low on BTC.

Despite this slowdown, Binance continues to… pic.twitter.com/P1XN9CN1PI

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 26, 2026

On the largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, the volume has dropped to $36.4 billion—81% lower than the figures from October 2025 ($198.6 billion). Similar trends are observed on Gate (-79.6%) and Bybit (-66%).

The expert linked this to macroeconomic pressures but suggested that the "drying up" of volumes might indicate seller exhaustion, similar to the end of the 2023 cycle.

Balance of Power

Despite the decline in trading volumes, several on-chain indicators suggest stabilization, according to Glassnode.

The cumulative volume delta (CVD), reflecting market buyer activity, has increased by 77.2%, while a similar metric for perpetual futures has risen by 35.5%. A spike in funding rate payouts by 135.4% confirms ongoing demand for long positions, although it has not yet translated into an aggressive rally.

Exchange reserves remain near multi-year lows at 2.3 million BTC. The limited supply protects the market from sharp declines, but a return of institutional interest in spot ETFs, which has significantly slowed, is necessary to initiate a new upward trend.

Waiting for Macro Triggers

The market has adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index—a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve.

Excessively high PCE values could reinforce investor confidence in the continuation of a tight monetary policy, negatively impacting risk assets. Conversely, a "cooling" of inflation could bring buyers back into Bitcoin.

As a reminder, on May 25, the price of the leading cryptocurrency rose above $77,000 amid falling oil prices.