Bitcoin's spot price gap narrows to 21%, but a further decline is required to enter the accumulation zone, signaling ongoing market correction.
The disparity between Bitcoin's spot price and its realized price has decreased significantly from 120% at the close of 2024 to just 21% now. However, for Bitcoin to enter its historical accumulation zone, it must decline an additional 20%, as indicated by data from CryptoQuant.
Currently, the average cost of all Bitcoin, based on the timing of their last transactions, is approximately $54,100. Bitcoin's trading price stands around $68,600 at the moment.
In the 2022 bear market, a crucial indicator of market bottom was when Bitcoin's spot price dipped below its realized price. During that period, from June to October, Bitcoin traded beneath its production cost. The most significant drop, where the spot price fell 15% below the realized price, aligned closely with a cyclical low of about $15,500, a pattern reminiscent of early 2020 when the market crashed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Market Correction Continues
Unlike previous cycles, the current situation shows that a 20% premium over the realized price suggests that many holders are still profiting, providing a cushion against further declines. For Bitcoin to align with the average cost of all coins, it would need to drop to around $54,000.
Additional on-chain metrics imply that the market correction is far from over. The Coinbase premium index remains negative, indicating reduced institutional interest among U.S. investors. Furthermore, Glassnode reports that the seven-day moving average of net flows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has turned negative, with daily outflows ranging from 200 to 500 BTC. An analyst remarked that this persistent outflow signals a lack of strong conviction among institutional investors at current price levels.
“The indicator is small but persistent — a quiet signal that institutional demand at current price levels remains uncertain,” analysts noted.
Experts have also observed a drop in daily transaction fees on the Bitcoin network, which have plummeted to 2.5 BTC per day, the lowest since March 2011. This decline in transaction fees reflects a significant decrease in demand for block space, consistent with lower network activity.
It is important to highlight that the first quarter of 2026 marked the worst performance for Bitcoin in the past eight years, with the asset's price declining by 22.2% over the three-month period.
