The gap between the spot and realized price of Bitcoin has narrowed from 120% at the end of 2024 to the current 21%. However, to reach the accumulation zone, where historical bottoms have formed, the asset needs to drop another 20%, according to data from CryptoQuant.

The average cost of all coins, considering the time of their last movement, is currently around $54,100. 

Source: CryptoQuant. 

As of this writing, Bitcoin's price is hovering around $68,600. 

Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView. 

During the bear market of 2022, a signal of the bottom was when the spot price of Bitcoin fell below its realized price. From June to October, the digital gold traded below its average cost of production. 

The maximum drawdown, when spot prices dropped 15% below the realized price, closely coincided with the cyclical low of around $15,500. A similar metric crossover was observed in early 2020 during the market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Reset Not Yet Complete

The current situation is different. A 20% premium over the realized price indicates that most holders are still in profit — a significant buffer. For the spot price to reach the average cost of all coins, Bitcoin needs to fall to about $54,000. 

Other on-chain signals also suggest that the correction is not yet over. The Coinbase premium index remains in negative territory — a sign of weakened institutional demand from American investors. 

Source: CoinGlass. 

According to Glassnode, the seven-day moving average (SMA) of net flows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has turned negative. The daily outflow is between 200-500 BTC. 

The 7D-SMA of US Spot ETF Netflow has turned negative since early last week, with 200–500 BTC in net daily outflows.

Small in magnitude, but persistent. A quiet signal that institutional demand conviction remains tentative at current price levels.

📉https://t.co/wQKxJFVr9p pic.twitter.com/5H1MY411wH

— glassnode (@glassnode) March 31, 2026

“The indicator is small but persistent — a quiet signal that institutional demand at current price levels remains uncertain,” analysts noted. 

Additionally, experts pointed out a decline in total daily transaction fees on the Bitcoin network. This metric has dropped to 2.5 BTC per day — the lowest since March 2011.

The 30D-SMA of total daily transaction fees has declined to 2.5 BTC/day, the lowest level since March 2011.

Fee compression of this magnitude reflects a significant reduction in on-chain demand for block space, consistent with subdued network activity.

📉 https://t.co/ZozJ5REhDE pic.twitter.com/eX83xHiqdn

— glassnode (@glassnode) March 31, 2026

According to them, this trend reflects a sharp decline in demand for block space amid low user activity.

It’s worth noting that the first quarter of 2026 was the worst for Bitcoin in the last eight years. Over three months, the price of digital gold fell by 22.2%.