With Bitcoin's price climbing to $85,000, on-chain data suggests a resurgence in spot demand. However, this metric varies significantly in the United States, as pointed out by CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D.

BTC Spot Demand Recovery and Divergence in U.S. Demand “Bitcoin demand is currently in a recovery phase, but confirmation from U.S. spot demand remains lacking.” – By @MAC_D46035 https://t.co/UAK2NHA6PO

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 2, 2026

The analyst reported that the 30-day metric for apparent demand increased from -182,000 BTC to -101,000 BTC during the week of September 24 to October 1.

Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium index remains negative, indicating that selling pressure from American investors on the spot market is still in effect.

“Bitcoin demand is currently in a recovery phase, but confirmation from the U.S. remains absent. A transition of visible demand into positive territory, along with a recovery of the Coinbase premium, will be key signals for assessing the potential of the current rally,” MAC_D added.

Another analyst, who goes by the name Darkfost, also noted the cautious recovery of spot volumes in the cryptocurrency market.

Source: X/Darkfost.

In July, during Bitcoin's local low, spot volumes plummeted to their lowest level in three years. Currently, these figures are beginning to recover, the expert mentioned.

In September, spot trading volume on Binance exceeded $50 billion, up from $42 billion in July; on Bybit, it rose to $19 billion from $14 billion; and on Kraken, it increased to $8 billion from $4 billion.

“For Bitcoin to reach new highs, this trend needs to accelerate, boosting trading volumes on the spot market and, most importantly, increasing demand,” Darkfost emphasized.

Profitable Cycle

According to Glassnode, long-term holders have remained profitable throughout the current market phase—something not seen in any bear market since 2015.

bitcoin:native long-term holders stayed in profit this entire cycle. No bear market since at least 2015 has done that. In each prior bear, LTH-MVRV fell below 1 at the cycle low, putting the cohort underwater. This time it bottomed above 1 and is now climbing again. https://t.co/7WzdYgCaTH

— glassnode (@glassnode) October 4, 2026

In previous scenarios, the MVRV metric for this group of investors dropped below 1 at the cycle low, indicating losses. This time, Bitcoin reached its bottom with the metric above 1.

Analyst anti_fragile pointed out that significant gains for the leading cryptocurrency historically occur after a return to the long-term average.

Bitcoin’s largest gains come after reclaiming its long-run mean. Currently, BTC is 13% away from that point. In each of the last three cycles, bitcoin:native did most of its climbing after the first close above. The cycle top usually followed more than a year after. https://t.co/orZS8sYLRU

— AntiFragile (@anti_fragile) October 4, 2026

Bitcoin is currently 13% away from this point. According to the expert, in each of the last three cycles, most of the growth occurred after the first close above this level, with the peak typically occurring more than a year later.

It is noteworthy that the digital asset finished the third quarter with a rise of 42.71%, marking its best performance for this period since 2017.

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