Markets indicate that Bitcoin has not yet found its bottom, as a crucial metric remains unbroken.
The weekly RSI for Bitcoin has not crossed a significant threshold that historically distinguishes between bullish and bearish trends.
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 12, 2026, 7:57 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on
Traders are searching for indicators that Bitcoin has reached a low point and is on the rise. (Lucas23/Pixabay)Current market analysis suggests that Bitcoin's weekly RSI is still below the critical level of 41.5, indicating a bearish trend.- Bitcoin's weekly RSI remains stagnant below 41.5, a threshold historically separating bullish and bearish trends.
- A rise above this level would validate a bottoming out, according to Material Indicators.
Traders in the cryptocurrency market, witnessing Bitcoin's price bounce from around $60,000 to $64,000, are questioning whether the bottom has been reached and if a new bullish phase is underway.
However, a key indicator suggests otherwise at this moment.
This indicator is the relative strength index (RSI), a popular momentum metric ranging from 0 to 100. Readings exceeding 70 indicate overbought conditions, while those below 30 signal oversold conditions. Specific levels within this range often act as dividing lines between bullish and bearish market conditions.
For Bitcoin, this critical threshold is set at 41.5, as per insights from the crypto analytics platform Material Indicators. Historically, prices above this mark have indicated a bullish trend, while prices below have typically faced bearish pressures.
Keith Alan, an analyst at Material Indicators, noted, "Currently, Bitcoin is below this level and continues to trend downward. This doesn't imply that prices must plummet, but it does mean that bulls need to prove their case."
This situation is akin to spotting early recovery signs in a struggling economy. For instance, initial indicators like rising job openings and increased consumer spending can be promising, yet economists refrain from declaring a recovery until concrete GDP figures confirm it—after all, those early signs could dissipate.
Similarly, in trading, a price increase could either signify the start of a new bull market or merely be a temporary relief rally within a larger downtrend. Thus, traders await specific indicators to validate their assessments.
Bitcoin's weekly candlestick chart alongside its RSI. (TradingView)The technical chart supports this analysis. The 14-week RSI's 41.5 level has consistently demarcated Bitcoin's bullish and bearish phases across numerous cycles.
During the bullish run from January 2024 to November 2025, the RSI consistently remained above 41.5, a pattern reflected in previous bull markets from 2020-21 and 2015-17.
Conversely, the most severe bear market phases have consistently seen the RSI fall below this threshold, as evidenced in late 2018, from May to December 2022, and in recent months.
Alan's observations are corroborated by data. A rebound of the weekly RSI above 41.5 would serve as the first significant indication that Bitcoin's overall trend is shifting towards bullish and that the bottom is reached.
Alan also pointed out that the next crucial RSI level to monitor is 31.89, the last weekly reading. If the indicator dips below this point, it could suggest further price declines ahead.
As of this report, the weekly RSI stands at 34.00, with Bitcoin trading near $63,000, showing little change over the past day.
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Why it matters:
In May, tokenized assets achieved a new high of $28.9B, marking their tenth consecutive month of record growth. The stablecoin market cap also continued its upward trajectory, reaching $320B.
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