MarketsShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailBitcoin faces lower high risk amid stock market rally and AI token gains
The bitcoin price chart indicates a potential formation of a lower high while ether remains stagnant in a long-established range, even as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rise.
By Oliver Knight, Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback May 26, 2026, 10:42 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on Bitcoin price (CoinDesk Data)Key Points:
- Bitcoin's price has decreased by 7% in the last two weeks, and it is at risk of confirming another lower high in a bearish trend that began in October.
- Ether has performed even worse, dropping more than 10% during the same timeframe.
- AI-related tokens are showing resilience, with the CoinDesk Computing Select Index rising by 1.9%, driven by RENDER and FET, while the DeFi Select Index increased by 1.3%.
- Privacy tokens have generally declined, with ZEC, XMR, and DASH experiencing losses of up to 7%.
Currently, Bitcoin BTC$77,368.07 is trading at $76,600, reflecting a 0.8% decline since midnight UTC, following a brief rise to $77,800 on Monday. This trend suggests that the leading cryptocurrency is potentially forming another lower high within a bearish pattern that dates back to October, marking a 7% drop over the past fortnight.
In contrast, broader financial markets are performing well. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have increased by over 0.5%, indicating that the challenges faced by crypto markets are more specific to the sector than due to macroeconomic or geopolitical factors.
Ether (ETH), trading at $2,098, has seen a decline exceeding 10% in the last two weeks and remains stuck in the range established between February and April, showing no indications of recovery.
The altcoin market presents a mixed picture, with AI tokens gaining traction while previously strong performers like zcash (ZEC) have seen significant losses of around 7% since midnight.
Derivatives Market Insights
- The volume in the crypto futures market has decreased by 10% to $130 billion in the past 24 hours. Notional open interest (OI) remains relatively stable at approximately $126 billion, with 24-hour liquidations down 21% to $126 million, indicating a calm market environment following the extended U.S. holiday weekend.
- SHIB, LINK, HBAR, NEAR, and TRX have seen significant increases in OI over the last 24 hours, while ZEC, XLM, and HYPE recorded losses. This suggests selective positioning rather than widespread investment across the altcoin market.
- NEAR has surged by 58% in the week ending May 24 and has added another 14% to reach $2.82, a level not seen since November. This rally is likely attributed to multiple upgrades focusing on dynamic scaling, privacy, and quantum defenses, along with new capital entering derivatives. Open interest has soared to a record 309 million tokens, up from 182 million a week ago.
- NEAR also exhibits the highest positive 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) among major tokens, indicating that buyers are actively driving price changes through market orders rather than passive limit orders. Funding rates are slightly positive, suggesting the market is not overheated, which could signal further price increases.
- Open interest for Chainlink's LINK futures has risen to 42.96 million tokens, the highest since February 7. With annualized funding rates around 8%, this indicates bullish sentiment as futures trade above the spot price for the oracle data provider.
- Bitcoin futures have cooled, with OI in BTC decreasing to 711K BTC from 793K BTC earlier this month. Meanwhile, ETH OI remains just below record levels near 15 million ETH. The 30-day implied volatility indexes for BTC and ETH continue to drop, reflecting ongoing volatility selling and a lack of panic-driven demand for options.
- However, on Deribit, BTC puts at strikes ranging from $70K to $76K have been among the most traded in the past 24 hours, indicating bearish sentiment and a protective stance against potential price declines.
Token Performance Overview
- CoinDesk's Computing Select Index (CPUS) was the standout performer on Tuesday, climbing by 1.9% since midnight UTC and 2.7% in the last 24 hours.
- The CPUS includes a mix of AI tokens and Chainlink, with FET gaining 4.8% and RENDER up by 7.2% on Tuesday.
- The DeFi Select Index (DFX) also outperformed major cryptocurrencies, increasing by 1.3%, suggesting investors are leaning towards more speculative investments while awaiting resolutions in Bitcoin and Ether's current trading patterns.
- Privacy tokens have faced declines, as Monero (XMR) and Dash (DASH) fell by approximately 1.5% each, following the downward trend of Zcash (ZEC).
- CoinMarketCap's "Altcoin Season" indicator currently stands at 35/100, an increase from last week's low of 31/100 but still below the monthly peak of 50/100.
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