A week after the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, global markets continue to react to the escalation's consequences. Oil prices have surged to record highs, the dollar has strengthened, and cryptocurrencies have shown "unexpected resilience."
Cryptocurrency Market
On February 28, amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Bitcoin's price dropped to $63,000, while Ethereum fell to $1,800. The total liquidation volume in the digital asset sector exceeded $963 million during the first weekend of the conflict.
Source: CoinGlass.However, this decline was short-lived. By March 1, Bitcoin had rebounded to $67,700, and on March 4, it tested the $74,000 mark.
Some experts predicted this trend, highlighting Bitcoin's status as a neutral store of value. Others considered the reaction "unexpectedly resilient," given the overall weakness of risk assets and global stock markets.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin had corrected to $70,000, with a 3.7% increase over the past day. Market participants were buoyed by U.S. President Donald Trump's statement about the potential for a swift conclusion to operations in Iran.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.Ethereum's price remained around ~$2,000 (+2.8% in the last 24 hours).
Hourly chart of ETH/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.Top 10 cryptocurrencies followed the lead of the two major coins, with the total market capitalization rising by 3.2% to $2.4 trillion.
Source: CoinGecko.Despite this, uncertainty prevails among crypto investors. A popular market sentiment indicator is currently in the "extreme fear" zone.
Source: Alternative.me.Gold and Stocks
At the start of the conflict, gold reaffirmed its status as a classic safe-haven asset. On March 2, spot prices reached $5,297 per ounce, while futures closed even higher at around $5,312. By the time of writing, quotes had corrected to $5,170.
Silver exhibited a similar trend, rising nearly 7% over the past week to $88.6.
Source: goldprice.org.The first week following the strikes on Iran saw stock markets reassessing risks, with investor reactions varying significantly by region.
U.S. indices experienced relatively moderate declines. Over the past week, the Dow Jones fell 1.5%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.5%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.8%.
In Europe, the decline was more pronounced due to rising oil prices and concerns about renewed inflation. By March 9, the STOXX 600 had fallen 0.6% and was nearly 6% below its record close on February 27. The index lost 1.5% over the week.
Asia was hit hardest, reacting sharply to threats to trade routes and its high dependence on raw material imports. Over the week, South Korea's KOSPI plummeted 4.4%, while Japan's Nikkei fell 3.5%.
Oil
The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran resulted in the death of the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. One of Tehran's retaliatory measures was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a key route for oil and LNG exports from the Persian Gulf. Threats to attack tankers triggered panic in commodity markets.
Oil became the primary indicator of investor nervousness. On March 1-2, prices surged amid fears of supply shortages. By March 9, oil prices exceeded $120 per barrel for the first time since June 2022. Following Trump's comments about potential de-escalation, Brent crude prices fell to $92.
Source: Investing.com.According to CryptoQuant, the rise in oil prices was deemed an unfavorable factor for Bitcoin. Experts noted that geopolitical shocks could trigger inflation spikes and create a negative environment for cryptocurrencies.
One of the main threats identified by experts is the potential for supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. The consequences of such restrictions would extend far beyond the local conflict: pressure on the global energy market would heighten inflation risks and increase volatility in financial markets. Some suggest that the logistical shock could last longer than the war itself.
The Dollar
The currency market displayed the typical dynamics seen during escalation periods: investors flocked to safe-haven assets. Increased demand for the dollar led to a rise in the DXY index, which reached 109 points on March 5.
Source: Investing.com.The currency situation in Iran was critical even before the conflict began. In early December 2025, the rial's exchange rate plummeted to a record low of 1.2 million per U.S. dollar. By the end of January 2026, it had dropped to 1.5 million.
Amid the escalation, cryptocurrencies found themselves alongside the U.S. dollar and gold as tools to partially escape inflation. However, after the strikes began, the domestic market sharply contracted due to widespread internet and communication outages across the country.
According to TRM Labs, the volume of crypto transactions from February 27 to March 1 fell by approximately 80%. Analysts noted a daily spike in activity of $3 million at the end of February, but attributed it to internal fund movements rather than capital flight.
Source: TRM Labs.Some experts did observe an outflow of user funds. According to Elliptic, in the first minutes following the start of the joint military operation by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, withdrawals from the country's largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, surged by 700%.
It is worth noting that in January, Elliptic experts revealed that the Central Bank of Iran had purchased $500 million in stablecoins USDT.