Bitcoin's recent resurgence has come to a halt, failing to lift the last group of underwater investors as it drops below $84,000.
Yearly buyer cohorts and U.S. spot ETF investors provide insights into support and resistance levels as bitcoin retreats.
According to data from Checkonchain, the only yearly cohort still underwater consists of those who purchased bitcoin in 2025, with an average cost basis around $88,000, a potential resistance point due to selling pressure from newer buyers.
In September, bitcoin reached a monthly peak of $87,500 but has since traded sideways, now sitting below $84,000.
The average cost bases for yearly cohorts have historically acted as both support and resistance. As bitcoin approaches these average purchase prices, some holders may opt to sell at breakeven, while others might increase their investments.
This year, bitcoin climbed to nearly $82,100 in May, aligning with the 2024 cohort's average cost basis, before hitting resistance and dropping to $60,000, a level it eventually surpassed in August.
The 2023 cohort has an average cost basis of roughly $65,000, which has served as a consistent support level. Earlier this year, when bitcoin dipped toward $60,000, this cohort's average cost basis was also nearby, effectively acting as support during the 2026 bear market, even though bitcoin briefly fell below it.
For the 2026 cohort, the average cost basis stands at about $73,500, and these investors have been profitable since late August when bitcoin surged past this threshold.
Additionally, the average cost basis for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs is currently around $82,300, which may act as a support level if bitcoin continues to decline. ETF investors have only recently turned profitable for the first time this year, highlighting its significance as a potential safety net.
ETF Cost Basis (Glassnode)