In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US rose by 0.2% seasonally adjusted. Year-over-year, the CPI stood at 2.4%, down from 2.7% in December.

The main driver of the monthly increase was housing prices, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% in January, and 2.5% over the past year.

Key contributors to inflation included airfare, personal care products, recreation, medical care, communication, and used cars. Prices for household goods, appliances, and vehicle insurance decreased.

Ahead of the data release, Wall Street's consensus forecast for the CPI anticipated a 0.26% monthly increase and a 2.5% annual rise, reflecting a decrease from December's 0.31% and 2.7%, respectively.

Wall Street expects a cooler month for headline inflation but a hotter month for core in January

Headline CPI: 0.26% m/m, 2.5% y/y (down from 0.31% m/m and 2.7% y/y in December)

Core CPI: 0.34% m/m, 2.5% y/y (core m/m accelerating from 0.24% in Dec, but y/y ticking down from… pic.twitter.com/g3S5b0EM8D

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) February 12, 2026

For Core CPI, financial firms also projected a year-over-year decrease to 2.5%. Leading economic correspondent for the WSJ, Nick Timiraos, noted the "unusually wide" range of opinions regarding the monthly figure, spanning from 0.25% to 0.42%.

"This indicates additional uncertainty regarding the implications at the turn of the year, and the carryover of rates to future events adds even more ambiguity," the expert remarked.

Following the BLS press release, Bitcoin prices surged, climbing from around $67,300 to approximately $68,500.

30-minute BTC/USD chart from Binance. Data: TradingView.

Over the past day, the cryptocurrency gained nearly 2% (CoinGecko).

The S&P 500 showed increased volatility at the start of trading but remained around the opening level of $6834. The NASDAQ 100 exhibited similar behavior, currently valued at $24,627.

Swap and options markets express nearly complete confidence that the Fed will maintain its current key interest rate range of 3.5-3.75% at the March 18 meeting. The probability of this scenario is estimated at 92.3%. Over the past day, this value increased by 0.7%, and over the month, it rose by 10.7%.

Source: CME.

Analysts at JPMorgan believe that the regulator will keep rates unchanged until the end of 2026.