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Bitcoin Records Worst Q1 Since 2018

Bitcoin faced a 22.2% drop in Q1 2026, its worst performance since 2018, amid geopolitical tensions and ETF outflows.

James Park
April 1, 2026 1 min read
Bitcoin Records Worst Q1 Since 2018

Bitcoin's price dropped by 22.2% in the first quarter of 2026, marking its worst start since 2018. The cryptocurrency ended March at $66,619, down from $87,508 at the beginning of the year. This decline is the second largest for the start of a year, with only a more severe drop of 50% recorded eight years ago.

This recent downturn continues the trend from the fourth quarter of 2025, during which Bitcoin fell 23%, resulting in a total decrease of over 40% over the past six months.

Factors Behind the Decline

The sharp correction is largely attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has negatively impacted investor sentiment across both cryptocurrency and traditional markets. Additionally, substantial outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have contributed to the price drop. Research head Andri Fauzan Adzima from Bitrue highlighted that high inflation rates and the Federal Reserve's cautious approach have further compounded the issue. In the first quarter, net outflows from Bitcoin spot funds reached $496.5 million, with earlier losses in January and February totaling $1.8 billion, despite a March inflow of $1.32 billion that only partially mitigated the earlier outflows.

Outlook for the Future

Despite the current challenges, analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Min Jung from Presto Research noted that institutional interest continues to remain strong, indicating that the recent price movements are more cyclical than indicative of a fundamental shift in market sentiment. For a potential recovery in the second quarter, analysts suggest that clearer macroeconomic signals, particularly regarding Middle Eastern tensions, will be necessary. Nick Rack from LVRG emphasized the need for renewed ETF inflows and regulatory clarity for the cryptocurrency sector in the U.S.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $68,800, having increased by 2.9% in the past 24 hours. Furthermore, JPMorgan analysts have identified Bitcoin as a key safe-haven asset amid the ongoing conflict in Iran.