Your day-ahead look for July 15, 2026
By Francisco Rodrigues|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 15, 2026, 11:46 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on U.S. producer price inflation data will help determine crypto market direction. (Shutterstock)SummaryShowThis is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
Bitcoin's BTC$64,532.45 surge on Tuesday has lost momentum as investors reflect on a U.S. inflation report that, while lower than anticipated, did not trigger expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction.
Despite being 3% higher in the past 24 hours, the leading cryptocurrency has seen a slight decline of 0.5% since midnight. Ether (ETH), which rose by 4.7% over the same period, has also reversed by 0.5%.
Following the release of the inflation data, the likelihood of a rate hike on Polymarket dropped significantly from 34% to 6.7%. Market participants are now estimating a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates this month, with the CME’s FedWatch indicating only a 14.4% chance of an increase in the next 30 days.
Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, remarked, “Crypto's reaction to the latest CPI report shows the market is becoming more selective in how it interprets macro signals. While falling inflation reduces pressure on markets and enhances the outlook for risk assets, traders are no longer assuming that every favorable inflation print will automatically lead to rate cuts or new all-time highs.”
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh noted that a single positive inflation report was not sufficient to declare victory, indicating that the central bank's future decisions will depend on forthcoming data. Additionally, a rate cut from the European Central Bank in July is now effectively ruled out, especially with Brent crude prices exceeding $85 per barrel, keeping inflation concerns alive.
More clarity is expected later today from U.S. producer prices, with PCE data set to be released towards the end of the month.
“The focus has shifted toward whether inflation can continue to cool without showing signs of a rebound,” Levin added.
This indicates that Bitcoin's future movements are more closely linked to ongoing inflation trends rather than the July decision, especially as oil prices continue to rise. Geopolitical factors will also play a crucial role, affecting oil and gas supply chains. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Stripe, Advent propose to acquire PayPal for over $53 billion, sources claim (Reuters): Payments giant Stripe has presented a $60.50-per-share offer to purchase PayPal, partnering with private equity firm Advent International.
- UK aims to issue its first G7 digital sovereign bond by early 2027 (CoinDesk): The U.K. is set to become the first of the G7 nations to issue government debt utilizing a distributed ledger technology.
- AI-driven payments gain traction as Visa, Mastercard, and Ripple support x402 standard (CoinDesk): Major card networks have endorsed a new payment standard facilitating transactions between software entities without human intervention, paving the way for widespread AI-driven, low-value transactions.
- Global markets show mixed results as oil prices rise following Iran's threats to disrupt Middle East energy exports (AP): Stock markets worldwide displayed varied performances while oil prices increased due to Iran's warnings about blocking energy exports amidst renewed U.S. sanctions on Iranian ports.
Today’s signal
The chart depicts the price of Hyperliquid’s HYPE in relation to Bitcoin, shown in weekly candles, emphasizing a bearish divergence in RSI that suggests further relative downside potential.
Additionally, the launch of perpetual futures for pre-IPO shares of CXMT, ChangXin Memory Technologies, could alter market dynamics. These futures will be available on Trade.xyz, benefiting HYPE's trading volume directly.
CXMT shares are anticipated to begin trading following an $8.6 billion IPO in Shanghai later this month.
Crypto Daybook AmericasRelated AssetsBitcoin$64,532.453.02%Latest Crypto News- 1Crypto steadies as Middle East tensions counter U.S. inflation report boost54 minutes ago
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- 4UK plans first G7 digital sovereign bond by early 20273 hours ago
- 5AI agentic payments enter mainstream as Visa, Mastercard, Ripple back x402 standard5 hours ago
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Gate Leads Spot Market Share Gains as CEX Volumes Rise for First Time in Five Months
Gate Leads Spot Market Share Gains as CEX Volumes Rise for First Time in Five Months
CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
By CoinDesk ResearchJul 13, 2026CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
Why it matters:
CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
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