Summary
- Bitcoin experienced a decline of approximately 0.9%, settling around $83,600 on Friday after reaching an intraday peak near $87,000.
- Despite this slight dip, technical indicators remain bullish, although future moves by the Federal Reserve could alter the current outlook.
- In contrast, XRP (+15.45% over the past week) and Solana (+9.33% over the past week) are outperforming the overall cryptocurrency market.
On Friday, Bitcoin fell to about $83,600, marking a 1% decrease from the previous close as the recent rally paused. This decline follows an intraday high of nearly $87,000, a level Bitcoin had not reached in several months, after breaking free from a range of $75,000 to $81,000 that had constrained it for weeks.
However, traders monitoring the charts are not overly concerned. The daily analysis continues to show a bullish trend, with the 50-day moving average positioned above the 200-day average, a pattern referred to as a golden cross.
Myriad: How high will Bitcoin go? Click to make your prediction.Some of the weakness observed on Friday can be attributed to mechanical factors. A substantial $15.6 billion in Bitcoin options expired on Deribit, leading dealers to typically unwind their hedges post-expiry—a common occurrence that can influence prices without disrupting the underlying trend.
This explains the sharp declines in open interest and trading volume, which fell by 14.39% and 13.68%, respectively. Liquidations were relatively balanced as well, with $161.96 million in long positions versus $156.1 million in shorts over the last 24 hours, indicating a resetting of leverage rather than a one-sided sell-off.
On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve increased rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% on September 16, marking its first hike of 2023. The Fed also continued purchasing short-term Treasury bills to maintain ample bank reserves, a strategy that softened the hawkish perception and supported risk assets.
Myriad: What will the Fed do next? Click to make your prediction.However, this relief was short-lived. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's post-meeting dot plot indicated a median rate projection of only 4.1% through the end of 2027, suggesting just one more rate hike in the pipeline. Fed Governor Michael Barr noted on September 23 that "further policy adjustments are likely needed," coinciding with a report showing core PCE inflation at 3.4%, near a four-year high.
As a result, the likelihood of an October rate hike has surged to approximately 75% according to the CME's FedWatch tool and 68.5% on Myriad Markets, a significant shift from the post-September meeting expectations.
In the meantime, Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted another $299.09 million on Friday, a figure lower than earlier in the week, suggesting that the initial surge in buying momentum is cooling off.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies now stands at $2.87 trillion, down from the $3 trillion level achieved earlier this week. The Fear and Greed Index has decreased to 72 from its peak of 79, remaining firmly in the 'greed' zone but showing less exuberance.
Most of the top ten cryptocurrencies have mirrored Bitcoin's downward trend over the last 24 hours. Ethereum remains relatively stable, while BNB has decreased by 0.81%, and both Tron and Hyperliquid are in the negative. XRP and Solana, however, are exceptions to this trend.
XRP has risen by 4.37% over the past day and 15.45% over the week, trading close to $1.58 with a market capitalization of $99 billion. XRP ETFs experienced a streak of inflows over nine days worth $1.6 billion in late August, with continued interest from institutional investors.
Solana's price increased by 3.36% for the day and 9.33% over the week, trading around $119.84 and boasting a market cap of $70 billion. The network's Alpenglow upgrade, which reduces transaction finality to about 150 milliseconds, has received overwhelming support in a validator governance vote, though the date for its mainnet activation remains uncertain. Meanwhile, spot Solana ETFs from Fidelity, Grayscale, and VanEck, launched in November 2025, continue to attract inflows as excitement around the upgrade builds.
The upcoming challenges for Bitcoin are imminent. The Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data for September will be released on September 30, followed by the jobs report on October 2, both of which could significantly influence rate expectations as the fourth quarter approaches.