Recent options market activity indicates that significant investors are anticipating a rise in BTC prices to $72,000 by the end of July.
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Aoyon Ashraf Jul 18, 2026, 2:15 p.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Traders are investing billions in the derivatives market ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. (Getty Images)SummaryShow- Investors have acquired $2.5 billion in bitcoin call spreads on Deribit, aiming for a price of $72,000 by July 31.
- This aligns with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for July 29, with expectations leaning towards maintaining current rates.
Traders are making substantial investments, betting that Bitcoin's value will reach $72,000 by the end of this month, coinciding with the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29.
This week, these bets were executed using bitcoin call options available on Deribit, which are contracts that yield returns if Bitcoin's price exceeds specified levels by a designated date.
Data from Deribit reveals that 20,000 call contracts for $70,000 expiring on July 31 were bought, along with the sale of an equal number of $72,000 call contracts. This totals $2.5 billion in notional value, with each of the 40,000 contracts representing one bitcoin.
This trading strategy is known as a bull call spread, employed when traders anticipate a moderate increase in the price of the asset.
Essentially, it’s akin to purchasing a ticket that rewards you if Bitcoin hits $70,000, while selling the potential profits beyond $72,000 to lower the initial investment cost. The advantage: reduced entry costs and minimized losses if the market stagnates or declines, albeit at the expense of forfeiting any profits exceeding $72,000.
Jean-David Péquignot, Deribit's chief commercial officer, noted, "This week we have seen some large blocks in BTC topside call spreads," indicating significant institutional activity rather than retail trading due to the scale and specific strike prices involved.
The timing of these trades is significant for two reasons. Firstly, it indicates optimism regarding Bitcoin's recent recovery from below $58,000 to $64,000 earlier this month. Secondly, the targeting of the July 31 settlement suggests that some large investors believe the Federal Reserve's meeting will trigger a price surge toward $72,000.
Current Fed funds futures indicate a strong likelihood of maintaining the current interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with an 75%-80% chance of no change at the upcoming meeting. The remaining probabilities are split between an increase and, to a lesser degree, a decrease in rates.
Concerns about rate hikes have lessened following June's inflation figures, which showed a significant reduction in inflationary pressures at both consumer and producer levels. Much of this relief is attributed to falling oil prices during the month, linked to a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran; core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained stable.
However, tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated recently, affecting oil supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Both WTI and Brent crude prices have surged the most since March. This has led some analysts to caution that the relief seen in June’s inflation data could be misleading, as it predates the current geopolitical tensions.
Despite the geopolitical concerns, some significant investors remain optimistic, betting on continued gains in Bitcoin prices.
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By CoinDesk ResearchJul 13, 2026CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
Why it matters:
CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
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