Summary
- Prediction markets show an increasing likelihood of Bitcoin falling below $70,000 by the end of May.
- Despite this, traders maintain a level of confidence, with the probability assessed at 26%.
- Recent price declines are linked to significant ETF outflows and rising liquidations in the crypto market.
As Bitcoin continues its downward trajectory, traders in prediction markets are growing more certain that it will dip below $70,000 before May concludes. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $72,739, having fallen 3% in the past 24 hours, and is just 3.9% above the critical $70,000 mark.
During this period, Bitcoin hit a six-week low of $72,669, according to CoinGecko. The probability of Bitcoin falling below $70,000 has surged over 240% on Myriad, a platform managed by Dastan, although it currently stands at 27% on that site. Similarly, Polymarket reflects a 26% chance of Bitcoin dropping below this threshold before the month ends.
The recent downturn in Bitcoin's value has been exacerbated by a wave of liquidations, totaling approximately $924 million within the last day, with $851 million linked to long positions. An analyst from Arctic Digital noted that ETF outflows are contributing significantly to this trend, stating, "Partly this is due to ETF outflows, with serious amounts getting out." Furthermore, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced over $1 billion in losses in just two days, with $733 million exiting on Wednesday alone. Over an eight-day span of falling prices, more than $2.6 billion has left Bitcoin ETFs.
