Summary
- The probability of Bitcoin sinking below $70,000 by the end of May has increased on Polymarket and Myriad.
- Despite this, traders still have confidence in its ability to maintain its value, with the likelihood of it dropping below this threshold at only 26%.
- The recent decline in Bitcoin's price has been driven by substantial ETF outflows and a rise in crypto liquidations.
Users in prediction markets are growing more convinced that Bitcoin will fall beneath $70,000 prior to the end of May, as the leading cryptocurrency continues its downward trend.
Having dropped 3% in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin was trading at $72,739, just 3.9% above the $70,000 threshold. It reached a six-week low of $72,669 during the night, according to CoinGecko's data.
This situation has significantly influenced the Bitcoin price target market on Myriad—a platform managed by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt—where the odds of Bitcoin going “under $70,000” surged over 240% in the last day, yet remain at 27%.
Traders on Polymarket also reflect similar probabilities—26%—for Bitcoin to dip below $70,000 before May closes.
The decline in Bitcoin’s value has been partly attributed to a wave of crypto liquidations, which have reached approximately $924 million in the last 24 hours, with $851 million related to long positions, betting on price increases.
An analyst from Arctic Digital commented to Decrypt on Thursday that, “Partly this is due to ETF outflows, with serious amounts getting out.”
In addition to the liquidations, Bitcoin ETFs have faced over $1 billion in losses over just the past two trading days, with $733 million exiting these investment products on Wednesday, according to Farside Investors. During this eight-day period of declining prices, more than $2.6 billion has exited Bitcoin ETFs.
Even with the increasing bearish sentiment regarding short-term prices, the chances of a more dramatic drop for Bitcoin in the upcoming days have not escalated significantly.
For instance, the probability of Bitcoin plummeting below $65,000 before May wraps up is merely 3% on Myriad.
Looking beyond the immediate timeframe, the outlook becomes more pessimistic overall. On Polymarket, the odds are 54% that Bitcoin will fall below $55,000 and 42% that it will trade under $50,000 by 2026.
Earlier this year, the crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant identified $55,000 as the “ultimate bear market bottom,” while analysts at Standard Chartered suggested that Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 before potentially rebounding to $100,000.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading more than 42% below its all-time high of $126,080.