Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, explained his forecast for Bitcoin's rise to $1 million. In a note, he viewed the asset as a direct competitor to gold in the global savings market.
The current volume of this segment is about $38 trillion, with $36 trillion attributed to the precious metal and $1.4 trillion to Bitcoin. The share of the first cryptocurrency is still under 4%. For Bitcoin to reach $1 million, it must capture over 50% of the market.
Hougan identified the main mistake investors make as underestimating the growth potential of the savings sector itself. In 2004, gold's market capitalization was $2.5 trillion, which has surged to $40 trillion over 20 years. This growth was driven by rising government debt in developed countries, geopolitical instability, and loose monetary policy, resulting in an average annual growth rate of 13%.
If this trend continues, the total savings market could exceed $121 trillion in ten years. At that scale, Bitcoin would only need to capture 17% of the segment to reach a price of $1 million.
Hougan's forecast is based on current fundamental changes in the industry:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have become the fastest-growing funds in history;
- Institutional investors have begun actively investing in the asset;
- The long-term volatility of the first cryptocurrency is decreasing.
The decline in price fluctuations is prompting professional investors to reassess their trading strategies. Where Bitcoin was previously allocated about 1% in portfolios, that share is now reaching 5%.
The executive acknowledged potential risks. The market could slow down, and Bitcoin might lose ground to alternative assets. However, the base scenario suggests a significant increase in the cryptocurrency's value amid further depreciation of fiat money. In this case, the $1 million forecast could even be too conservative.
Alternative Opinion: Drop Below $60,000
Not all market participants share the optimism regarding short-term prospects. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes stated that if he had only $1 to invest right now, he would not buy Bitcoin.
Where is Bitcoin headed next?@CryptoHayes latest takes might surprise you.
— Natalie Brunell ⚡️ (@natbrunell) March 10, 2026
Full show streaming now 🎧
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Arthur Hayes’ origin story
8:33 Bullish or bearish on Bitcoin
9:59 Institutions taking over Bitcoin?
11:52 Bitcoin price manipulation
13:26 What's holding… pic.twitter.com/Q5w86NdMW8
He is waiting for a loosening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and a resumption of "printing money" before entering the market.
In the short term, Hayes anticipates significant sell-offs in stocks and cryptocurrencies due to geopolitical tensions. He estimates that Bitcoin's price could drop below $60,000.
However, the expert's medium-term outlook remains positive. He believes that in the coming years, the price of digital gold will exceed $100,000.
Beginning of a Bear Market
The share of unprofitable Bitcoin supply has reached 40-45%. According to CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu, this indicates market weakness and the early phase of a bearish trend.
Supply in Loss Rising Again
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 11, 2026
“Supply in Loss is increasing, indicating rising market stress. But if historical patterns repeat, the current level may represent the early phase of a bear market rather than the final bottom.” – By @Woo_Minkyu pic.twitter.com/5tEeQHvm4Z
The specialist noted that historically, such levels have accompanied deep corrections or market cycle changes, similar dynamics were observed in 2015, 2019, and 2022. The increase in this metric means more investors are holding coins at a loss, intensifying overall market stress.
However, the analyst emphasized that a global bottom has not yet been reached. In past cycles, it formed only after the share of unprofitable supply exceeded 50%.
Woominkyu believes that current levels signal the beginning of a prolonged decline rather than an imminent trend reversal.
Analyst Ted Pillows agrees with these conclusions. He pointed out that Bitcoin's monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) also confirms that the cycle bottom has not yet been reached.
$BTC monthly RSI is indicating that a cycle bottom hasn't happened.
— Ted (@TedPillows) March 10, 2026
IMO, when monthly RSI drops below 40, a cycle bottom will occur. pic.twitter.com/QiBeSaz6zn
The expert predicts that the final market bottom will only occur when the RSI drops below 40.
Decline in Funding Rate
The 30-day percentile of the funding rate for the first cryptocurrency has fallen to 6%. This is the lowest level since early 2023, according to analyst RugaResearch.
Funding Rate 30D Percentile at 6%. The Lowest Reading Since Early 2023.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 10, 2026
“The 30-day percentile ranks today's funding rate against the last 30 days of readings. At 6%, almost every single day in the past month had higher funding than right now.” – By @RugaResearch pic.twitter.com/tYQWEXj8mc
In only 6% of cases over the past month did the rate drop below current levels. The derivatives market is dominated by sellers: short sellers have been paying long holders to maintain their positions for nearly two weeks.
Sentiment shifted dramatically after a record January, when the average daily rate was +0.005%, and the percentile mostly stayed above 80%. In February, the trend reversed: the average dropped to -0.003%, and in March it fell to -0.004%.
Over the past 30 days, the rate has been negative for 25 days. The most extreme value was recorded on February 6 at -0.021%, with similar drops below -0.01% observed on February 25, 28, and March 4. The pressure from short sellers is not easing but is only increasing.
RugaResearch emphasizes that the drop to 6% indicates a strong imbalance. The rate may remain "suppressed" for weeks, but such a strong and one-sided consensus among traders rarely leads to a smooth price decline. More often, it precedes a sharp spike in volatility.
“When everyone is confident in the direction of movement, the market usually reminds us that it does not take orders,” the analyst concluded.
Recall that on March 9, Bitfinex experts stated that the future direction of the first cryptocurrency depends on oil prices, bond yields, and Federal Reserve policy.