Jiang Zhuoer predicts bitcoin could decline to $42,000-$44,000 by year-end, based on market trends and Strategy's asset valuation.
Chinese Miner Forecasts Bitcoin's Price Decline Amid Market Trends
Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent bitcoin miner from China and founder of the LeBit mining pool, has warned that bitcoin could drop significantly to between $42,000 and $44,000 by the end of the year. This projection reflects a potential decline of around 30% from its current value of approximately $60,700.
Zhuoer’s analysis is based on the market net asset value (mNAV) of Strategy, a key corporate bitcoin holder, which has recently fallen to 0.72. This ratio indicates that investors are valuing Strategy at a significant discount compared to its bitcoin assets, a sentiment that historically precedes a market downturn.
The miner's forecast aligns with a four-year cycle model suggesting that bitcoin's volatility is decreasing over time. He notes that the current mNAV level mirrors a similar low seen in 2022, which was followed by a substantial decrease in bitcoin prices.
“The mNAV has dropped to 0.72, close to the previous cycle's low, indicating we might be nearing a market bottom,” Zhuoer stated.
He anticipates that if historical patterns hold, bitcoin may reach its lowest point about six months after the current mNAV level, potentially signaling a bottom around late 2026. Additionally, recent bearish indicators, including bitcoin's position near its 200-week moving average, suggest further weakness in the market.
Zhuoer's outlook is further supported by calls from analysts urging Strategy to reconsider its bitcoin acquisition strategy, suggesting it may have overextended its investments. The current market dynamics, combined with the unwinding of the debasement trade that previously supported bitcoin, are contributing to an increasingly cautious sentiment among investors.
