A leading miner indicates that Strategy's stock mNAV has decreased to 0.72, approaching a critical level that historically signals a market turnaround, with bitcoin typically bottoming around six months thereafter.
By Shaurya Malwa|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 25, 2026, 2:39 p.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on According to the miner, the share price to bitcoin ratio of Strategy indicates further declines in BTC value. (Maxim Hopman/Unsplash)SummaryShow- Jiang Zhuoer, a well-known bitcoin miner from China, anticipates that the current bear market will hit its lowest point in the fourth quarter, with bitcoin priced between $42,000 and $44,000.
- His predictions are based on Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV), which he claims has recently dropped to a level similar to its 2022 cycle low, a sign that historically appears about six months before bitcoin's price bottoms.
- The price range forecasted by Jiang is derived from a four-year cycle model that suggests decreasing volatility in bitcoin over time.
- His pessimistic outlook corresponds with other recent indicators, such as bitcoin's proximity to its 200-week moving average and the reversal of the debasement trade.
Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent Chinese bitcoin BTC$59,398.17 miner and founder of the LeBit mining pool, has projected that the ongoing bear market will bottom out in the fourth quarter at a price of about $42,000 to $44,000.
This forecast, expressed in Chinese on X, suggests a decline of around 30% from bitcoin's current value of approximately $60,700, relying more on the performance of Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, than on the cryptocurrency itself, based on an automated translation.
Jiang examined Strategy's market net asset value (mNAV), which is the ratio of the company's stock price to the per-share value of its bitcoin holdings, revealing a drop to 0.72. A reading above 1 indicates that investors value the company at a premium over its bitcoin assets, whereas a reading below 1 suggests the opposite.
Jiang's calculation indicates that the market values Strategy at about 28% lower than the bitcoin it possesses, reflecting significant bearish sentiment towards the investment.
《对本轮BTC熊市 见底时间&价格 预测》
— 江卓尔_莱比特矿池 (@Jiangzhuoer2) June 24, 2026
【重要长期预测贴】
MSTR的mNAV已跌到0.72了【图1，图3】，
（mNAV=股价/每股含BTC价值 比值，代表美股资金对MSTR的市场情绪，高于1为泡沫高估，低于1为悲观低估）
接近上一轮牛市2022年5月11日的最低点0.7【图2】。
根据最近STRC大幅脱锚等市场情绪事件，… https://t.co/V5s0Q2S2Wy pic.twitter.com/o9fqE9U80z
This value is close to the 0.7 low that Strategy experienced on May 11, 2022, during the last transition from bull to bear market, leading him to believe that mNAV is nearing its floor for this cycle.
At that time, bitcoin reached its low of approximately $15,500 about six months later in November. If this pattern applies now, it suggests a bitcoin bottom could occur around late 2026.
Recently, some analysts urged the company to halt its bitcoin purchases, suggesting it had overreached in its investments.
As for timing, Jiang's price estimate is derived from a different model based on bitcoin's four-year cycle.
He likens the price trend to a ball bouncing, with each successive bounce being lower than the last. His model indicates that as bitcoin's market value increases, its price fluctuations diminish. The model predicts a low of $44,016 on October 31, although Jiang emphasized that it is more reliable for timing than for exact price points, which is why he provided a range of $42,000 to $44,000 for the period from October to December.
This forecast comes during a week filled with bearish indicators. FxPro noted bitcoin is currently at its 200-week moving average, a level that has historically preceded extended periods of weakness in previous cycles, and suggested $55,000 as a potential low, while the debasement trade that previously supported bitcoin alongside gold and silver is unwinding due to a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.
Read more: How STRC lost its par: The timeline behind Strategy's preferred-stock meltdown
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