Upcoming bearish signals from Bitcoin's long-term moving averages may actually benefit bullish investors.
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on (TradingView)SummaryShow- Bitcoin's long-term moving averages are poised to indicate a bearish trend.
- This trend has historically acted as a contrarian signal, often indicating market bottoms and the start of upward rallies.
For those curious about the potential for Bitcoin BTC$62,299.70 to decline further, one historically reliable contrarian indicator suggests the drop will be minimal.
This specific indicator may appear to forecast a bearish sentiment shift, but it has typically foreshadowed a more optimistic future.
The indicator relies on two moving averages: the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-week average. The 50-week SMA, which reflects approximately one year of performance, is on the verge of crossing below the 100-week line. Such a crossover is often interpreted as a "bear cross" by analysts. If current trends continue, this could occur as early as next week.
While this may seem alarming for bullish traders, it could actually be a positive sign.
Historically, three bear crosses have occurred in Bitcoin’s past, each marking a market bottom that led to the end of a downturn and the commencement of a three-year bullish trend. Therefore, this upcoming crossover might indicate that the bear market is close to its end and that a bottom is imminent.
However, some skeptics might argue that three historical occurrences do not provide enough evidence for a definitive conclusion. While this is a valid point, the consistent contrarian nature of bear crosses aligns with the established reputation of long-term moving averages as "lagging" indicators.
Looking Backwards
It’s essential to consider what information these averages provide. They represent average prices over the last 50 and 100 weeks, meaning they reflect past market actions. The forthcoming bear cross is essentially a consequence of Bitcoin’s price dropping 50% from $126,000 in October to approximately $60,000. Thus, their predictive capabilities are limited at best.
When these bear crosses do occur, market exuberance is typically gone, short-term traders have exited, and capitulation has already taken place. This combination suggests that market participants may view this crossover as a significant signal indicating a potential bottom.
Nevertheless, past performance does not guarantee future results, and broader economic shifts can significantly impact technical trends. Factors such as bond yields, ETF inflows, and recent activities from companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR) remain crucial in determining Bitcoin's next movements.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $62,400, with the 50-week average at $89,771 and the 100-week average at $88,397.
Technical AnalysisMarketsRelated AssetsBitcoin$62,299.702.80%Latest Crypto News- 1Live updates: An 'altcoin season' signal flashed, but Bitcoin's slide is what triggered it2 hours ago
- 2XRP heads towards $1.10 support as traders anticipate a break from a three-week range2 hours ago
- 3SpaceX’s $600 billion drop wiped out nearly half of Bitcoin’s market cap in three days2 hours ago
- 4Bitcoin falls below $63,000 as a tech sell-off pulls risk assets down3 hours ago
- 5Trump signs orders to develop a quantum computer and safeguard against potential encryption breaches3 hours ago
- 6U.S. Senate approves housing bill that includes a four-year ban on a Federal CBDC9 hours ago
- 7Securitize and tZERO dispute over patents amid the race to blockchain Wall Street11 hours ago
- 8Ric Edelman claims crypto’s most significant growth is occurring off the price chart12 hours ago
- 921Shares co-founder cautions that tokenization excitement is surpassing Wall Street's reality12 hours ago
- 10Strive states the digital credit selloff was a liquidation event rather than a credit crisis12 hours ago
CEX Volumes Hit Lowest Levels Since September 2024 as RWA Perpetuals Reach Record High
CEX Volumes Hit Lowest Levels Since September 2024 as RWA Perpetuals Reach Record High
In May, total exchange volumes decreased by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, setting a new all-time high.
By CoinDesk ResearchJun 15, 2026In May, total exchange volumes decreased by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, setting a new all-time high.
Why it matters:
In May, total exchange volumes decreased by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, setting a new all-time high.
View Full ReportMore From Markets