As of April 20, Bitcoin is trading around $75,000, down 0.2% for the day but up 6.3% for the week. Over the weekend, the US seized an Iranian vessel, while Tehran regained control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.
Ethereum fell 1% in a day to $2,300. Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap, only HYPE saw a significant drop of 4.7%, while others lost less than 1%.
Source: CoinMarketCap.
The total liquidation volume in the crypto market reached $419 million in a day, with $218 million attributed to long positions.
Source: CoinGlass.
The traditional market reacted more sharply to the latest escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude oil rose 5% to $95, while WTI recovered to $87 per barrel.
Key European indices opened lower.
Source: Investing.com.
Gold increased 0.4% to $4,791 per ounce. The dollar index fell 0.03%.
Shifting Narratives
On April 17, Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz "fully open." However, by April 19, the situation changed as US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy all power plants and bridges in Iran if negotiations failed.
The other side indicated it might skip the second round of negotiations while the US maintains its naval blockade.
This marks the fourth major Middle Eastern event that the crypto market has absorbed relatively calmly, noted analysts from CoinDesk. Each new escalation in the conflict elicits a more subdued response from Bitcoin, while oil and stocks continue to react sharply to the news.
Experts believe the digital asset sector has already priced in the main risks, while traditional markets are still catching up.
According to QCP, volatility remains low. Instead of sharp spikes in conflict, investors are pricing in a more prolonged scenario—periodic disruptions in the Strait alongside political rhetoric and de-escalation.
"In other words, the market is assessing not the intensity but the duration of the war, which may drag on but remain within current parameters," they explained.
Analysts also noted that the balance between bullish bets and protective positions has changed little over the week, indicating that the market has yet to determine its direction.
In addition to the regional situation, investors are awaiting remarks from Kevin Warsh, a candidate for the Fed chair position, as highlighted by QCP.
"Investors are focused on his views on interest rates and the economy. Warsh's comments could serve as a short-term catalyst—especially if they bolster expectations for policy easing amid ongoing geopolitical risks," the experts concluded.
What’s Next
Bitcoin has established itself above the realized price of the most sensitive group of short-term holders—those who entered the market between one week and one month ago. Their breakeven point is around $69,400, according to analyst Darkfost.
📊 Bitcoin is now establishing itself above the realized price of the most price-sensitive Short-Term Holders cohort (1w-1m), around ~$69,400.
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) April 20, 2026
This helps restore some confidence among participants who entered the market recently.
💥 BTC is now testing the realized price of the… pic.twitter.com/9xXcgzg81T
He believes this helps restore confidence among recent market participants and reduces the likelihood of their rapid capitulation.
Currently, the leading cryptocurrency is testing the realized price of holders from one to three months, around $74,900. They have been the most affected by the correction that began in October 2025.
"These investors could have exited only once—in January 2025, when the price first touched their breakeven point. Now it's a second test. The key question is: will they hold their positions or start selling?" wrote Darkfost.
If this level is surpassed and the market stabilizes above it, the pressure from short-term holders will significantly ease. This would give digital gold room to move towards the next critical zone.
The cost basis for the earlier group of short-term holders (three to six months) is higher—at $92,000. The expert expects this to be the final resistance, after which most market participants will return to profitability.
Bitcoin has also formed a new price gap on the CME exchange at $77,400, noted trader Ash Crypto.
$BTC has formed a new CME gap around the $77,400 level.
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) April 20, 2026
Since Q4 2025, Bitcoin has filled 90% of its CME gaps within a week.
If this happens again, $1.6 billion worth of short positions will get liquidated. pic.twitter.com/1NF6Y4QNvl
Since the fourth quarter of last year, the leading cryptocurrency has closed 90% of such gaps within a week. If this pattern repeats, the liquidation volume of short positions will reach $1.6 billion, adding upward momentum, the expert noted.
MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe added that Bitcoin showed a relatively strong bounce recently, despite investors typically reducing their interest in risk assets before the US market opens.
Relatively strong bounce upwards on $BTC on Monday, as markets tend to go risk-off prior to the open.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 20, 2026
Gold has gone down, so no attached risk. #Bitcoin bouncing upwards, and given that there's still a gap to $77.3K, I would assume we're going to see new highs this week. pic.twitter.com/NcSeP56Vug
The trader also pointed to the weak performance of gold, suggesting a lack of significant flight to safety instruments.
In this context, van de Poppe anticipates a retest of local highs this week, with the next key level for Bitcoin set at $77,300.
As a reminder, from April 13 to 17, crypto funds attracted $1.4 billion, indicating a recovery in investor sentiment.