Bitcoin and ether are approaching the lower limits of their recent trading ranges, according to a note from Wintermute's OTC trading desk shared with CoinDesk on Wednesday. Both cryptocurrencies are being influenced by last week's hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve and inconsistent news from Iran.
Options markets suggest a narrow range for the next 24 hours. The one-day straddle from Wintermute indicates that bitcoin could fluctuate between $61,242 and $63,563, while ether is expected to move within a range of $1,606 to $1,694. This suggests anticipated price shifts of approximately 1.9% for bitcoin and 2.7% for ether.
The overall environment is worsening. Increasing correlations among tokens indicate that these assets are moving in tandem rather than being driven by their individual fundamentals. Additionally, liquidity is diminishing as summer approaches, with no significant institutional interest evident in ETF flows.
Wintermute has identified $59,000 as a crucial level to monitor, labeling it the bear market low and an important support threshold if downward pressure persists.
Three key factors will influence the market for the remainder of the week: the status of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, the upcoming PCE inflation report—favored by the Fed as a measure of price growth—and the quarterly options expiry at the end of the month, which may lead to amplified price movements as traders adjust or close substantial positions.