With the U.S. dollar gaining strength and the Federal Reserve adopting a hawkish stance under new chair Kevin Warsh, crypto may face challenges this summer.
By Krisztian Sandor|Edited by Stephen Alpher Jun 24, 2026, 1:42 p.m. 1 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on (Jakub Żerdzicki/Unsplash/Modified by CoinDesk))SummaryShow- Markus Thielen from 10x Research anticipates Bitcoin could decline to $55,000 before finding its cycle low.
- He notes that a stronger U.S. dollar has historically posed challenges for Bitcoin.
- Indicators suggest Bitcoin may reach a bottom between late August and October.
According to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, Bitcoin BTC$61,233.40 is likely to face more downward pressure before the ongoing bear market concludes.
Thielen attributes this outlook to the U.S. dollar's recent strength, which has traditionally been a negative factor for Bitcoin. This situation has been exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's hawkish approach under new Chair Kevin Warsh. There is growing speculation in the markets regarding whether the Fed will opt for a rate hike instead of a cut, a scenario that has bolstered the dollar and negatively impacted various assets.
Nonetheless, Thielen predicts that this downturn will not persist indefinitely.
Three distinct indicators — trends in global liquidity, the macroeconomic calendar, and Bitcoin's seasonal behavior — all indicate that a market low may occur between late August and October.
One specific model that tracks global liquidity changes, which Thielen asserts successfully identified a buying opportunity in March and an exit signal in April, points to late August as a significant turning point. Additionally, seasonal trends suggest that September has typically been a challenging month for Bitcoin, usually followed by a stronger October.
This timeframe aligns with two key Federal Reserve meetings slated for September and October, as well as the U.S. midterm elections and the Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing announcement expected in early November.
In conclusion, Thielen anticipates that Bitcoin may drop below $60,000 and potentially hit $55,000 before establishing what he believes will be the cycle's low point.
"The implication is patience now, attention in late August," he noted.
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CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High
CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
By CoinDesk ResearchJun 15, 2026In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
Why it matters:
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
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