The price of the first cryptocurrency has surpassed $80,000 for the first time since late January. On the Bitstamp exchange, the asset reached a local peak of $80,617.

Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.

Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, believes that after reclaiming the $79,000 level, Bitcoin is on track to reach between $86,000 and $88,000.

#Bitcoin looks primed for upwards momentum.

Very keen to see how the markets will react when the US opens, especially given the positive ETF flows of last Friday.

Breakout above $79K opens the opportunities all the way towards $86-88K for coming period. pic.twitter.com/Hu5fMiWJB4

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 4, 2026

He noted that the correction to $60,000 in February "reset" on-chain indicators, allowing the asset to potentially rise to between $92,000 and $95,000 without breaking the bearish trend or even starting a new growth cycle.

Positive sentiment is bolstered by inflows into American spot Bitcoin ETFs. On May 1, net inflows into these instruments totaled $630 million.

Trader opinions on future movements are divided:

  • Some market participants see a "bear flag" on the chart. If the price fails to hold above $80,000, a drop to new lows is possible;
  • Others are confident that the flag structure has broken, and current indicators suggest a base is forming for a new wave of growth.

Amid the price recovery, the on-chain metric MVRV has risen to 1.45, the highest level since the beginning of the year. This signals increased profitability for investors and a return of market momentum.

The macroeconomic backdrop remains mixed. The Federal Reserve is experiencing a split regarding future policy, and markets have stopped pricing in a rate cut this year due to persistent inflation. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has reached a historic high amid strong corporate earnings reports.

Additionally, the oil market situation could support risk assets. Analysts expect Brent prices to decline as military risks are already priced in, and supply begins to exceed demand.

Bitcoin at $250,000

Technical analyst Peter Brandt forecasts that the price of the first cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 by the end of 2029. According to his prediction, this rally will be preceded by a prolonged period of stagnation.

Brandt believes the market will form a bottom only by September or October 2026. He suggested that prices could fall to between $40,000 and $50,000 before entering a phase of active growth.

This forecast is based on four-year halving cycles. Historically, Bitcoin peaks 16-18 months after the mining reward is halved, followed by a year-long bear market.

If this pattern holds, a new uptrend could begin after April 2028, allowing the asset to reach the target of $250,000 by the end of 2029.

Institutional Demand Exceeds Bitcoin Supply

Charles Edwards, founder of the investment fund Capriole, has noted an abnormal demand for Bitcoin from large players. According to him, institutions are buying over 500% of the daily mined supply of the first cryptocurrency.

Institutions are slurping up 500%+ of Bitcoin's daily mined supply. Every time it's been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. The average return in prior cases is +24% over the next 1 month from here, that would take us to around $96K. pic.twitter.com/VLynr1xhv8

— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) May 4, 2026

Edwards pointed out that such a supply shortage has historically led to rapid market growth. In previous cycles, the asset's price began to rise within a week after reaching such levels.

The average return for Bitcoin in similar situations has been 24%. If this trend repeats, the asset's price could rise to $96,000.

It’s worth noting that CryptoQuant specialists considered the April rise in Bitcoin to be speculative. Over the month, the price of digital gold increased by nearly 12%.