The first cryptocurrency closed the weekly candle below the 100-week moving average, which is around $87,500. Analyst Brett pointed out the loss of this critical support level in the macro trend.
Bitcoin has closed weekly below the 100W moving average.
— ₿rett (@brett_eth) February 2, 2026
Outside of a black swan flash crash (COVID), Bitcoin has historically stayed below it for 182-532 days.
Why does this matter?
Be patient. Set limit orders. Don't fomo. Have a strategy.
The 100w is currently at… https://t.co/pDzBM25lcA pic.twitter.com/YLTR2pHDfP
He noted that the coin often remains below this line for extended periods. The only exception was a brief crash in 2020. In other cases, the asset entered a prolonged accumulation phase:
- During the 2014-2015 cycle, the price stayed below the line for 357 days in the range of $200-600;
- In 2018-2019, the period lasted 182 days at the bottom of the bear market ($3,000-6,000);
- In 2022, following the FTX collapse, consolidation took 532 days ($16,000-25,000).
The only exception was the brief crash during the 2020 pandemic. The current dynamics indicate a phase of prolonged accumulation rather than a quick rebound.
USDT Dominance Factor
Analyst Sherlock warned of the risks of a bearish reversal.
Bitcoin has 36 hours before the bear market officially starts.
— Sherlock | DeFi Researcher (@Sherlockwhale) January 31, 2026
USDT dominance is about to close above 6.7% for the first time in 2.5 years.
This is the level that started the bull market when it broke down in October 2023.
Every retest of this resistance marked Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/WSLIAmgjZU
The dominance of the stablecoin USDT on the weekly chart has exceeded 7.2%. In previous cycles, closing above 6.7% confirmed a downward trend. This breakout has been recorded for the first time in two and a half years.
Sherlock considers the $85,000 mark a significant barrier to growth.
$85,000 is about to become Bitcoin’s biggest resistance for the next 6 months.
— Sherlock | DeFi Researcher (@Sherlockwhale) February 1, 2026
Everyone who bought between $85K-$108K over the past 3 months is underwater. That’s overhead supply. Trapped longs.
When price rallies back to $85K, all those underwater will holders get their first… pic.twitter.com/3MdWkzUt5J
In Q4 2025, spot trading volume in the $85,000-95,000 range exceeded $120 billion. Many investors are currently at a loss.
With the current price around $78,000, any rise to $85,000 will face selling pressure from traders looking to break even. The realized price for short-term holders (1-3 months) is $91,500.
The market structure resembles the 2022 fractal. Back then, Bitcoin formed lower highs and lost the 100-week SMA before a deep correction.
If the 2022 scenario repeats, the price could drop to the demand zone of $40,000-45,000. The risk of decline remains until there is a confident return of quotes above the moving average.
Alternative Forecast: "Air Pocket"
The crypto market is nearing the end of its downturn, according to CoinDesk, citing analysts Ed Engel and Michael Donovan from Compass Point. They believe a significant drop in the U.S. stock market is needed for a much deeper decline.
The base scenario suggests a bottom in the range of $60,000-68,000. The experts expect a price reversal around $65,000. In this zone, long-term holders (holding for over 6 months) acquired 7% of the coin supply, creating strong support.
The $70,000-80,000 range has been labeled an "air pocket" by analysts. In this corridor, less than 1% of coins have been bought by long-term investors. The lack of structural support poses a risk of further selling pressure.
The current drop below $81,000 reflects the average entry price for holders of Bitcoin ETFs and the broader market. Since January 15, there has been a net outflow of $3 billion from funds. Over 50% of assets under management are in the red. The $81,000-83,000 zone now acts as a resistance level.
The worst-case scenario is a drop to $55,000. This is the average acquisition price for all historical buyers. In 2022, breaking this level required a combination of a bear market in stocks and high-profile bankruptcies of crypto companies.
It’s worth noting that Cantor Fitzgerald suggested that digital assets are entering an early stage of a prolonged decline.