The Bitcoin price on the weekly chart has fallen below the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) after dropping below $85,000. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that this signal has historically preceded significant declines.
$BTC has always retested 200W EMA after losing 100W EMA.
ā Ted (@TedPillows) February 4, 2026
200W EMA currently sits at $68,400. pic.twitter.com/plIDepViox
According to his estimates, the asset's price could drop to the 200-week EMA around $68,400.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $76,100, having slightly recovered from a drop to $73,000.
In the last 24 hours, the asset's price has decreased by 2.9%, and it has lost 14.8% over the week.
Expert Quinten described the current cycle as "the most disappointing" in the history of digital gold.
Most disappointing cycle in history pic.twitter.com/VvDa5fwewG
ā Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) February 4, 2026
As shown in the chart, after the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin's price primarily trended upward. Since April 2024, the opposite trend has been observed.
Additionally, the analyst pointed out that the first cryptocurrency is at a record level of oversold conditions, dropping below the levels seen during the COVID-19 crash.
Bitcoin is MORE oversold than during the COVID crash šØ pic.twitter.com/hCpz9uOMFN
ā Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) February 3, 2026
Some believe that Bitcoin may face an even deeper correction in the coming days.
Expert BitcoinHabebe described the drop to the target level of the "head and shoulders" pattern at $60,000 as "expected," citing several macroeconomic factors.
Another expert, 0xLanister, predicted an even steeper decline, stating that the emerging chart pattern presents an "extremely alarming picture."
Very scary picture: if this technical analysis figure "head and shoulders" works ā Bitcoin price will drop to $40,000
ā 0xLanister (@0xLanister) February 4, 2026
It seems that Binance and CZ provoked a bear market in crypto. Again. pic.twitter.com/LukyEQ1vp9
"The price of Bitcoin could drop to $40,000," he noted.
Previously, analyst Brett pointed to a potential correction to this level as a possibility.
New Risks
QCP linked the recent recovery of Bitcoin to the cancellation of the threat of another U.S. government shutdown. The House of Representatives narrowly approved a $1.2 trillion funding package.
While the pressure related to the shutdown has eased, it is only temporary, experts emphasized. Funding for the Department of Homeland Security has been extended only until February 13, creating a potential "trap" with a new deadline looming.
Tensions surrounding the Federal Reserve have also increased. President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to head the Fed has raised risks associated with potential changes in the regulator's monetary policy.
If investors begin to expect a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle in the second half of the year, this could provide limited support for risk assets and put pressure on the dollar.
However, the main focus will shift to the Fed's balance sheet policy. Warsh is known as a proponent of quantitative tightening (QT).
"Warsh has indicated a preference for a faster balance sheet reduction, which directly affects the repo market. A troubling reminder: when reserves become scarce in 'wrong' places, stress can manifest suddenly," analysts warned.
Cautious Sentiment
The options market confirms the overall cautious sentiment. Key indicators suggest that investors are preparing for increased volatility in the near term:
- high short-term volatility: implied volatility remains elevated despite a local price rebound;
- term structure shift: higher prices for short-term options compared to long-term ones ā a classic sign that the market is assessing near-term risks as overstated;
- downside protection prioritized: there has been a sharp increase in demand for put options, and strategies aimed at sharp movements remain expensive.
From a technical perspective, $75,000 is a key psychological and technical level for Bitcoin, according to QCP.
If the price stabilizes above this level and related indicators (such as funding rates in the futures markets) normalize, it could create conditions for position recovery and be seen as a signal for a measured increase in risk.
"If this level is breached, investor sentiment could quickly turn defensive," experts concluded.
Notably, Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that the current phase of the market downturn is closer to its end than its beginning.