Bitcoin's price drop to below $60,000 raises doubts about the max pain theory, as it falls significantly short of the $72,000 target ahead of a $10 billion options expiration.
Bitcoin's recent decline has sparked skepticism about the max pain theory, notably as its price hovers well below the projected $72,000 ahead of a significant $10 billion options expiration.
Bitcoin's price struggles challenge the max pain theory as options expiration approaches.
As of June 25, 2026, Bitcoin has fallen from around $67,000 to under $60,000, raising doubts among analysts about whether prices will align with the anticipated max pain level for the upcoming options expiry. Traditionally, the max pain theory suggests that prices converge at a level that maximizes losses for options buyers, specifically targeting $72,000 this time.
However, Bitcoin's current trading price is around $61,700, far from the expected pain point. This has led to increasing skepticism about the theory's efficacy, as recent expirations have not demonstrated the predicted price pinning effects.
Experts like Tony Stewart of Pelion Capital point out that the max pain theory may not hold much relevance in the cryptocurrency market. According to Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, while there is significant liquidity associated with the $10 billion in options set to expire on Deribit, the expected price movements have not aligned with traditional theory.
Despite the apparent weakness of the max pain dynamics, analysts still view the upcoming expiry as a major liquidity event, which could introduce increased volatility due to the volume of contracts expiring or rolling over.
Overall, Bitcoin's trajectory and the performance of the max pain theory will be closely observed as the options expiry unfolds this Friday at 8:00 ET.
