Markets Bitcoin's recent price drop has raised doubts about the validity of the max pain theory, as it remains significantly below the $72,000 mark just one day before a $10 billion options expiration.
The max pain theory appears ineffective as Bitcoin's value is far from the anticipated $72K level ahead of the quarterly options expiry worth $10 billion.
By Omkar Godbole Updated Jun 25, 2026, 7:31 a.m. Published Jun 25, 2026, 7:24 a.m. 2 min read Make preferred on Share Share this article Copy link X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Make preferred on
Bitcoin trades significantly below the projected expiry target of $72,000. (pithonius/Pixabay)Summary:
- Bitcoin's price has dropped from approximately $67,000 to below $60,000 just before a $10 billion options expiry, challenging the "max pain" theory that suggests prices should converge at a level where options buyers incur maximum losses.
- The current max pain threshold for the upcoming expiry is around $72,000, which is well above the current trading prices, and the anticipated price pinning effect has not materialized in recent expirations, generating skepticism among options analysts.
- Despite the apparent weakness in max pain dynamics, the June expiry is still anticipated to be a significant liquidity event that may increase volatility due to the expiration or rollover of billions in contracts.
The recent decline in Bitcoin's BTC$61,650.42 price ahead of Friday's quarterly options settlement has cast further doubt on the effectiveness of the "max pain theory."
As of now, the max pain level for this expiry is set at $72,000, which is considerably higher than the current spot price of around $61,700. On Friday at 8:00 ET, options valued at $10 billion are set to expire on Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange.
The term max pain refers to the price point at which options buyers—those who have acquired call and put contracts to protect against volatility—stand to lose the most money upon expiry. In this scenario, option sellers (or writers) would benefit while buyers face significant losses.
The theory posits that, in anticipation of expiry, option sellers tend to manipulate the spot price toward the max pain level, effectively anchoring Bitcoin's price there. This notion has gained traction in crypto social media, particularly after Bitcoin seemed to gravitate toward the max pain point during various monthly and quarterly settlements in 2020-2021. This trend, although possibly coincidental and influenced by other market factors, has helped bolster belief in the theory.
However, the recent drop from $67,000 to below $60,000 contradicts the max pain theory.
This skepticism aligns with the views of options experts like Tony Stewart, founder of Pelion Capital, who has repeatedly contended that the max pain theory has limited relevance in crypto markets.
Additionally, the expected pinning effect has been largely absent in recent expiries.
“This Friday's expiry is worth monitoring with $10.2 billion rolling off Deribit, where max pain is at $72k, significantly above the current spot. Despite being an appealing narrative, recent option expiries haven't effectively pinned prices as anticipated,” said Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at the leading crypto market maker Wintermute, in an email.
This doesn’t imply that the event is insignificant. Deribit has characterized the June expiry as one of the year's major liquidity events, with billions of dollars in contracts set to either expire or roll over to future dates, a process often associated with increased volatility.
Bitcoin News Related Assets Bitcoin$61,650.421.45% Latest Crypto News- 1Live markets: Bitcoin, ether lead $1 billion liquidation losses amid ongoing AI trade1 hour ago
- 2MemeCore's M token experiences an abrupt 80% crash without an apparent cause2 hours ago
- 3Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin launches in Japan following regulatory approval2 hours ago
- 4Bitcoin establishes a new threshold; Thursday's core PCE may challenge it.3 hours ago
- 5XRP declines by 2.8% as a fragile bounce maintains focus on $1 support3 hours ago
- 6Bitcoin recovers above $60,000, while ETH and SOL regain losses as AI stocks rebound3 hours ago
- 7Changes at the Ethereum Foundation have some major crypto figures feeling optimistic12 hours ago
- 8Kalshi aims for a substantial $40 billion valuation, extending its lead over competitor Polymarket12 hours ago
- 9Binance retracts Greek MiCA bid but commits to maintaining a presence in Europe14 hours ago
- 10Bitcoin drops below $60,000 as AI trade continues to attract investor interest and capital15 hours ago
CEX Volumes Hit Lowest Levels Since September 2024 as RWA Perpetuals Reach All-Time High
CEX Volumes Drop to Their Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perpetuals Reach Record High
In May, total exchange volumes decreased by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest level since September 2024. Conversely, RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, setting a new record.
Why it matters:
In May, total exchange volumes fell by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes surged by 10.4% against this trend, reaching an all-time high.
View Full ReportMore From Markets