The risks of a continued correction in digital gold remain high. A negative technical outlook coincides with increased activity from major players.

20% Drop Threat

A bearish pennant pattern is forming on the daily chart of the leading cryptocurrency.

Daily BTC/USDT chart from Binance. Source: TradingView.

This pattern occurs when prices consolidate within a narrow, descending range following a sharp decline (the "flagpole"). A breakout below the lower boundary of this formation typically leads to a new downward impulse comparable in scale to the initial movement.

If the price settles below the support level, it could trigger a drop to $56,000 in February (about 20% from current levels). Conversely, a breakout above the upper trend line and the 20-day EMA around $72,700 would negate the bearish scenario.

Whale Activity

Negative expectations are reinforced by on-chain data. According to CryptoQuant, the seven-day moving average of Bitcoin inflow from large holders to Binance has reached a record 0.619. For comparison, at the beginning of the month, this figure was 0.4.

Whale inflow metric dynamics (Binance). Source: CryptoQuant. 

This indicator tracks the share of the ten largest transactions in the total volume of exchange deposits. Analyst Darkfost believes that the increase in this metric indicates growing price pressure from major players.

Durable Bottom

Matrixport analysts identified a signal that could serve as a short-term counterbalance to the bearish trend.

This week, the fear and greed index from the company indicated a likely local minimum. The 21-day moving average of the indicator has dropped into negative territory and is beginning to turn upward.

📊Today’s #Matrixport Daily Chart — February 17, 2026 ⬇️

Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Extreme Lows ⁰— Durable Bottom Are Emerging?

#Matrixport #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #MarketSentiment #FearAndGreed #RiskManagement #Volatility #CryptoResearch pic.twitter.com/WxJg3xrHSf

— Matrixport Official (@Matrixport_EN) February 17, 2026

This shift indicates an exhaustion of selling and widespread pessimism among investors. Historically, extremely negative sentiment has suggested attractive entry points.

"Given the cyclical nature of the relationship between sentiment and price dynamics, the market is likely approaching a turning point," Matrixport stated.

However, analysts do not rule out further price declines in the short term.

The popular indicator remains at extremely low levels, indicating "extreme fear":

Cryptocurrency fear and greed index. Source: Alternative.

Correlation with Stocks and Macroeconomic Factors

In recent months, Bitcoin has shown a close correlation with the tech sector. However, after a synchronized drop with U.S. stocks, the leading cryptocurrency did not support their subsequent rebound.

Crypto is Macro Now newsletter author Noel Acheson described the current situation as "blatantly grim." She believes that progress in institutional adoption of the asset is not yet reflected in its price, which only heightens investor pessimism.

Another pressure factor is the situation in the spot Bitcoin ETF segment. Net outflows from these products have continued for the fifth consecutive week.

Dynamics of inflows and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue.

At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $67,930. Over the past 30 days, the asset has decreased by 26.5%, according to CoinGecko.

Recall that Glassnode experts identified significant losses among long-term investors amid Bitcoin's drop to $60,000.