On March 9, the price of the leading cryptocurrency briefly fell to around $65,700. Experts are divided on the market's future direction: some anticipate a rise, while others warn of potential declines due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
As of this writing, the asset is trading at approximately $67,185 (+0.1% over the past day).
Mike McGlone, a senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, suggested that Bitcoin could drop to $50,000, while silver might fall to $50 per ounce.
Iran War May Enhance Bitcoin Bear, Fuel Silver Peak —
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) March 7, 2026
Bear markets are notable for sharp bounces, and Bitcoin has done so. A top reason the crypto may have rebounded roughly 12% to March 4, almost matching crude oil's gain since the start of the Iran war, is highlighted by the… pic.twitter.com/wV5Qf8cvCl
John Haar, managing director of Swan Bitcoin, noted that during periods of market instability, the first cryptocurrency behaves like a high-risk asset. In the long term, its price is determined by increased adoption and monetary properties.
The market's dynamics heavily depend on institutional investors. Orkun Mahir Kılıç, co-founder of Citrea, identified spot ETFs as a primary gateway for traditional capital.
Jordan Jefferson, founder of MyDoge, emphasized that local macro shocks are pressuring Bitcoin's price. Globally, an independent financial infrastructure benefits from the weakness of traditional finance (TradFi). Banking disruptions and the devaluation of fiat currencies are prompting users to shift to digital assets for wealth preservation.
US Stock Market Decline
Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research believes that the likelihood of a market crash by year-end has risen from 20% to 35%. The chances of a speculative rally driven solely by investor enthusiasm have dropped from 20% to 5%.
The main reason for this revision is the rise in oil prices. On March 9, prices surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. This energy shock is impacting household incomes, reducing corporate profits, and complicating the Federal Reserve's task.
“The US economy and stock market find themselves caught between two fires. The Fed is too. If high oil prices persist, the regulator will face a tough choice between rising inflation and increasing unemployment,” Yardeni stated.
In this context, the dollar has emerged as the main beneficiary. Over the past week, the US currency has strengthened against nearly all major competitors. Traditional safe-haven assets like Treasury bonds, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and gold are losing value.
Futures on the S&P 500 index fell by 1.6%. Hedge funds are actively increasing short positions on US stocks.
Despite short-term risks, the strategist's base scenario remains positive:
- 60% — probability of a "Roaring Twenties" scenario by year-end, which suggests robust US economic growth driven by increased productivity. Over the next decade, the likelihood of this scenario reaches 85%.
- 15% — chance of a repeat of the 1970s stagflation over the next decade.
Yardeni emphasized that if investors believe in the reality of stagflation, a full-blown bear market would become the most likely outcome.
Bitcoin's Correlation with the IT Sector
The recent synchronized movement of digital gold and US software stocks is linked to macroeconomic factors rather than a structural merging of markets. This was stated by Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG.
Last week, the first cryptocurrency rose alongside the IT sector. As a result, market participants began to view Bitcoin as a proxy for evaluating software companies.
According to Cipolaro, while the price charts look similar, the assets do not share common trends like AI development. Their simultaneous growth is merely a reaction of liquidity-sensitive risk instruments to current economic conditions.
Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin's correlation has increased not only with software stocks but also with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices.
However, the stock market explains only a quarter of Bitcoin's price movements. The remaining 75% of its value changes are influenced by factors not directly related to traditional exchanges.
The analyst noted that investors are currently not using Bitcoin as a hedge against macroeconomic shocks. As a result, the asset has yet to fulfill its status as "digital gold." Traders are purchasing cryptocurrency simply as one of many risk assets.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin retains its own economic drivers: network activity, adoption rates, and regulatory features.
“This uniqueness preserves Bitcoin's status as a portfolio diversification tool. The current high correlation with stocks does not determine the cryptocurrency's returns,” the expert concluded.
It is worth noting that earlier in March, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck stated that the price of digital gold has approached a local bottom.