In brief

  • Bitcoin experienced a decline of 1.22% today, settling at $77,323, failing to maintain last week’s surge above $80,000 as broader market concerns over inflation surfaced.
  • The cryptocurrency's 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is close to crossing above its 200-day EMA, a phenomenon known as a golden cross, anticipated to confirm around September 11.
  • If this occurs, it would mark the first golden cross since the bearish death cross in November 2025.

Today has been challenging for investors in risk assets. The S&P 500 fell by 0.59%, the Nasdaq dropped nearly 1%, and Bitcoin retraced some of its recent gains following the Producer Price Index for August, which came in higher than anticipated, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve might opt for rate hikes instead of cuts.

On a broader scale, nearly 85% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization lost value within the last 24 hours. Additionally, oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions complicate the inflation scenario. Treasury yields surged to multi-year peaks, putting pressure on non-Treasury assets.

Myriad: What’s Bitcoin’s next move? Make your prediction here.

With the Consumer Price Index report due on Friday and the Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for September 15, the markets are bracing for potential turbulence as the week draws to a close.

While the immediate outlook may seem precarious, a broader analysis of the Bitcoin chart reveals a pattern developing that historically signals bullish trends.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin began the day at $78,282, reached a peak of $78,526, and then fell to a low of $76,651, currently trading at $77,323, reflecting a decline of $959, or 1.22% for the day.

This marks a retreat from last week’s highs above $80,000, but when viewed in a larger context, Bitcoin is still significantly up from its August lows near $64,000.

Bitcoin price data. Image: Tradingview

The Average Directional Index (ADX), which gauges the strength of a trend regardless of direction, stands at 45.8—well above the 25 level that traders consider indicative of a genuine trend. This is a strong reading, and in conjunction with the Relative Strength Index at 55.6—indicating bullish momentum without being overbought—it suggests that the recent upward trend may still have room to grow, despite today’s downturn.

Currently, the moving averages indicate a bearish setup, with the 50-day EMA still below the 200-day EMA. However, this gap is narrowing, and the anticipated crossover—known as a golden cross—could be confirmed in the coming days unless a significant negative event occurs.

This would represent Bitcoin's first golden cross since the bearish crossover in November 2025, which initiated the current market downturn.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is currently active, which traditionally indicates that volatility is decreasing before a significant price movement, either upward or downward. If conditions align favorably and Bitcoin sustains its bullish trend, this compression might lead to an upward breakout, confirming the golden cross.

The significance of the golden cross amidst today’s dip

One day of losses driven by macroeconomic inflation surprises does not negate a multi-week upward trend; today’s selloff affected stocks similarly to cryptocurrencies. What sets Bitcoin apart is the positive moving average setup forming beneath the price action.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $3.8 billion in net inflows over the past three weeks, marking their strongest performance of 2026, with total net assets reaching $101.3 billion. This suggests that institutional interest remains robust, even as the cryptocurrency adjusts to today’s macroeconomic-driven pullback.

Nonetheless, traders should not view a golden cross as a certitude. It is a lagging indicator, based on historical price data, and past trends show it can sometimes reverse within weeks of its formation. With the CPI report and the Fed’s decision forthcoming, Bitcoin’s next significant movement is likely to be influenced more by inflation data than by the intersection of two moving average lines.

Disclaimer

The opinions expressed by the author are intended for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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