Summary
- Bitcoin experienced a 17% drop from just below $74,000 on Monday to a low of $61,556 on Thursday, resulting in $4.47 billion in crypto liquidations.
- Data from derivatives and options markets indicate a lack of demand and a rise in protective downside bets.
- Experts suggest that Bitcoin may decline further into the $50,000s, with a potential bottom emerging in three to six months.
Bitcoin continued its downward trend on Thursday, further impacting the broader crypto market without any definitive signs of recovery.
Over the span of four days, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 17%, dropping from nearly $74,000 on Monday to an intraday low of $61,556 on Thursday, as reported by CoinGecko data.
During this period, total crypto market liquidations reached $4.47 billion, with bullish positions accounting for $3.82 billion—around 93% of all positions liquidated. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at about $63,680, reflecting a daily decline of 5.1%.
Recent data from derivatives and options markets sheds light on Bitcoin's decline, alongside ongoing ETF outflows, deteriorating geopolitical conditions, and their subsequent impacts, as previously noted by Decrypt.
Since late April, the Coinbase premium has remained negative and has widened since May 26, according to CoinGlass. This metric, which indicates the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance, has largely stayed negative for most of 2026, with only brief positive spikes in March and April. A persistent negative premium suggests weak demand from U.S. institutions.
According to Deribit, Bitcoin’s 30-day 25-delta skew has dropped from -4.2 to -9.4, indicating that options traders are continuing to pay for downside protection through bearish bets or put options.
Since June, Bitcoin’s open interest has decreased from 282,000 BTC to 265,000 BTC, as per Velo data, while both spot and perpetual cumulative volume delta—the difference between market buying and selling pressure—has significantly declined. This combination suggests that new short positions have increased as Bitcoin's price fell.
On a positive note, the depth of the spot order book at 5% and 10% indicates that some investors are still buying during dips despite the ongoing selloff.
What is the potential low for Bitcoin?
Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, stated that geopolitical risks are the main factor driving the current selloff. “The renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran have heightened risk aversion across markets and even raised the possibility of rate hikes,” he remarked. “As U.S. equities reach new all-time highs, speculative capital is being directed towards AI stocks instead of crypto.”
Otychenko pointed out that just before the rapid decline, the cost basis for Bitcoin's short-term holders fell below the actual mean price—an event that historically occurs during the mid-stages of bear markets. “The average recent buyer is currently at a loss compared to long-term valuation benchmarks,” he elaborated. “Historically, this situation creates a cycle where losses lead to further selling pressure.”
According to several on-chain models, Bitcoin might still dip below the $60,000 mark, Otychenko indicated. He also highlighted that the supply held by long-term holders reached a record high this week, a trend frequently seen during bear markets. “If historical trends continue, we could see a bottom form within the next three to six months.”
If Bitcoin falls below $60,000, Otychenko identified the realized price around $54,000 as the next significant reference point. “Given the current lower volatility, the eventual bottom might be much closer to that level than in previous cycles.”
Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly, explained that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a natural “tired phase” in its cycle. With Bitcoin hovering just above $60,000, Singh stated he wouldn’t be surprised to see another drop into the $50,000s. “That could be where the market finds its ‘true bottom,’ shakes out weak hands, and begins to establish a foundation for a stronger upward movement later this year.”
On the prediction market Myriad, which is owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, optimism has significantly decreased, with users now estimating a 70% chance that Bitcoin's next major move will take it to $55,000 instead of $84,000.
Standard Chartered’s Contrarian Perspective
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of crypto research at Standard Chartered, views Bitcoin's sell-off as a potential buying opportunity, as shared in a research note with Decrypt. While Kendrick acknowledged the impact of Strategy’s 32 BTC sale catalyst, he anticipates that the company will repurchase a multiple of what it sold.
“I expect the buying following the selling to be more aggressive—either 10x (+320 BTC) or 100x (+3200 BTC),” he said. “If I am right … this could indicate that the low has already been reached.”
Kendrick also noted that ETF holdings have remained “structurally strong,” decreasing only from 682K BTC to 674K BTC since February—much less than he had anticipated. “Looking back at the end of 2026, with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k, we may conclude that this was the buying zone we all desired.”