Two key metrics have pointed to a potential trend reversal for the leading cryptocurrency, noted CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente.
Bitcoin’s Stress Cycle Is Ending — But Not Yet Reversing
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 9, 2026
“Risk remains present… But for investors with a cycle-aware framework, the data suggests we are closer to the beginning of an opportunity than the end of one.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/3Ajya7zPJp
The Sharpe ratio has plunged deeply into negative territory, reaching -40. Historically, this threshold has coincided with the formation of long-term price bottoms. In 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023, breaching this level was followed by subsequent asset growth.
The buying and selling pressure indicator adds important context, the expert noted. Traditionally, stable cycle lows are formed in several stages rather than all at once.
Initially, there is a drop into the zone of maximum selling pressure (orange/red spikes below -0.05 on the second chart above). At this stage, forced sellers and panic-stricken market participants capitulate.
Then, as market supply decreases, the situation gradually normalizes.
When the indicator returns to the blue range of “buying pressure” (a signal of genuine demand resumption rather than mere stabilization), the most favorable risk-reward ratio emerges.
“Currently, the chart shows that the orange washout (capitulation) has already occurred. We are moving into the next phase. The delta is slowly returning, but it has not yet reached the blue levels. This gap — between confirmed capitulation and demand revival — has historically been the point for the most asymmetrical capital allocation,” explained Moreno de Vicente.
However, he warned that macroeconomic risks, liquidity, and fragile investor sentiment could prolong this process.
Conditions for Trend Reversal
According to Glassnode analysts, Bitcoin is currently in a typical bearish phase.
Bouncing in a Bear#Bitcoin bounced from $67k to $72k, but weak spot demand and softer futures activity suggest the recovery still lacks strong conviction, even as ETF flows begin to turn modestly positive.
— glassnode (@glassnode) April 8, 2026
Read the full Week On-Chain👇https://t.co/ADIT9yu3C4 pic.twitter.com/S1T79HQ59z
A relief rally amid a temporary truce between the U.S. and Iran could lift the cryptocurrency to $78,000 — the level of true average market price. However, no significant change in momentum has been observed yet.
For a sustainable recovery, two conditions are necessary:
- stabilization of the cost basis for short-term holders (which is currently declining);
- a sharp reduction in losses for those who bought at the cycle peaks.
This dynamic can be tracked using the seven-day moving average of realized losses for long-term investors. Since November 2025, this metric has exceeded 4,000 BTC per day — a signal of capitulation among buyers who entered at the highs.
The most reliable signal for a phase change will be a combination of a sustained decline in this metric to below 1,000 BTC per day and a price return above the cost basis for short-term holders ($81,600).
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $71,400. In the last 24 hours, the asset's price has decreased by 0.3%, but it has risen by 7.5% over the week.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.
Saylor Confident in Cycle Bottom
Meanwhile, Strategy Michael Saylor believes Bitcoin has already reached its bottom around $60,000, as reported by The Block. He pointed to a familiar pattern: downtrends end not amid improved sentiment but due to the exhaustion of forced selling.
According to him, the recent decline was primarily driven by over-leveraged miners and weaker participants who liquidated their positions.
As their supply diminishes, the balance of power in the market shifts. Saylor listed factors that limit further declines:
- more stable demand for ETFs;
- improved liquidity expectations;
- increased corporate investments in treasury assets.
According to his estimates, current conditions appear asymmetric: as supply from weak players dwindles, demand for Bitcoin continues to rise.
Max Gnatisin, head of operations at Toobit CIS, commented to ForkLog that the outlook for Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole remains positive. Among favorable factors, he highlighted investments through spot exchange-traded funds.
“My forecast is for the first cryptocurrency to rise to $180,000-200,000, which will support portfolio diversification and new altcoin ETFs,” he said.
The expert did not rule out a rally in the coming weeks, stating that growth would be fueled by the Fed's easing policy and regulatory shifts.
However, in a negative scenario, Bitcoin risks retreating to $60,000-68,000, where key support levels lie.
Quantum Threat
Saylor also commented on the potential threat from quantum computers. He stated that these risks are distant and quite manageable. Any real threat will develop gradually, giving the network ample time to adapt.
The open architecture of Bitcoin will allow developers to implement quantum-resistant updates long before such attacks become practically possible, the expert emphasized.
Recall that on April 8, the CTO of Lightning Labs, Olaoluwa Osuntokun, presented a prototype tool to protect wallets from potential quantum attacks.